Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security

  • Review Paper
  • Published:
AMBIO Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5–3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. (www.worldclim.org/futdown.htm).

References

  • ACIAR. 2004. CS1/2000/160 Second Technical Report, January–December 2003, Seeds of Life—East Timor. Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.

  • Allan, W. 1965. The African husbandman. Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alves, A.A.C. 2002. Cassava botany and physiology. In Cassava: Biology, production and utilisation, eds. R.J. Hillcocks, J.M. Thresh, and A.C. Bellotti, 67–89. Wallingford: CAB International.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • ARPAPET. 1996. Agro-climatic zones of East Timor. Dili, Timor, Indonesia: Indonesia-Australia Development Corporation. Agricultural and Regional Planning Assistance Program East Timor, Kantor Wilayah Departmen Pertanian Propinsi Timor Timur, Jalan Estrada de Balide.

  • Barnett, J., S. Dessai, and R.N. Jones. 2007. Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor. AMBIO 36: 372–378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Battacharjee, R., B.R. Natare, E. Otoo, and P.Z. Yanda. 2011. Regional impacts of climate change: Africa. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, and H. Lotze-Campen. Ames, IO: ISUP/Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Asher, J., Y. Garcia, A. Garcia, and G. Hoogenboom. 2008. Effect of high temperature on photosynthesis and transpiration of sweet corn (Zea mays L. var. rugosa). Photosynthetica 46: 595–603.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borges, L.F., A. do Rosario Ferreira, D. Da Silva, R. Williams, R. Andersen, A. Dalley, B. Monaghan, H. Nesbitt, et al. 2009. Improving food security through agricultural research and development in Timor-Leste: A country emerging from conflict. Food Security 1: 403–412.

  • Boserup, E. 1965. The conditions of agricultural growth: The economics of agrarian change under population pressure. Chicago: Aldine.

  • Bouma, G., and H. Kobryn. 2004. Vegetation cover change in East Timor, 1989–1999. National Resources Forum 28: 1–12.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bowen, W.T., R.B. Diamond, U. Singh, and T.P. Thompson. 2005. Farmer and environmental benefits derived from deep placement of urea briquettes for flooded rice in Bangladesh. In Proceedings of third international nitrogen conference, contributed papers, eds. Z. Zhu, K. Minami, and J. Galloway, 71–76. Monmouth Junction, NJ: Science Press USA Inc.

    Google Scholar 

  • Buckles, D., B. Trimophe, and G. Sain. 1998. Cover crops in hillside agriculture, farmer innovation with Mucuna. IRDC/CIMMYT, 230.

  • CAVR. 2005. Chega! The report for the commission for reception, truth and reconciliation in Timor-Leste (CAVR) Rua Balide, PO Box 144, Dili. Timor-Leste.

  • Cao, S., L. Chen, Q. Feng, and Z. Liu. 2007. Soft-riser bench terrace design for the hilly loess region of Shaanxi Province, China. Landscape and Urban Planning 80: 184–191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, et al. 2007. Regional climate projections. In Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, eds. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller, 847–941. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooper, P., K.P.C. Rao, P. Singh, J. Dime, P.S. Traore, P. Dixit, and S.J. Twomlow. 2009. Farming with current and future climate risk: Advancing a ‘Hypothesis of Hope’ for rainfed agriculture in the semi-arid tropics. Journal of SAT Agricultural Research 7. ejournal.icrisat.org/aespaperv7.

  • DaMatta, F.M. 2004. Ecophysiological constraints on the production of shaded and unshaded coffee: A review. Field Crops Research 86: 99–114.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Datt, G., M. Cumpa, V. Nehru, N. Roberts, A. Franco, and S. Dhar. 2008. Timor-Leste: Poverty in a Young Nation. Dili, Timor-Leste: Ministéro das Finanças and Direcção Nacional de Estatística, and Washington: World Bank.

  • Doanh, L.Q., and L.V. Tiem. 2003. Feasible solutions for sustainable land use in sloping areas. In Integrated watershed management for land and water conservation and sustainable agricultural production in Asia, proceedings of the ADB-ICRISAT-IWMI Annual Project Review and Planning Meeting, Hanoi, Vietnam, December 2001, eds. S.P. Wani, A.R. Maglinao, A. Ramakrishna, and T.J. Rego, 42–49. Patancheru: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dupuis, L., and C. Dumas. 1990. Influence of temperature stress on in vitro fertilization and heat shock protein synthesis in maize (Zea mays L.) reproductive systems. Plant Physiology 94: 665–670.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • FAO. 2007. Special report FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Timor-Leste. FAO global information and early warning system on food and agriculture world food programme. FAO corporate document repository. Economic and Social Development Department.

  • FAO. 2010. Global watch GIEWS. Timor Leste. The food and agriculture organisation of the United Nations.

  • FAOSTAT. 2010. Production, trade and food security statistics. http://faostat.fao.org. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.

  • Fox, J.J. 2003. Drawing from the past to prepare for the future: Responding to the challenges of food security in East Timor. In Agriculture: New directions for a new nation East Timor (Timor-Leste), ACIAR Proceedings No. 113, eds. H. Da Costa, C. Piggin, C.J. Cruz, and J.J. Fox, 105–114. Canberra: Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao, W.H., and X.P. Deng. 2007. Techniques of effective conservation and efficient use of water on terraced land in Yan’an city. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation 27: 225–229. (In Chinese, English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Garrity, D.P. 1996. Tree–crop–soil interactions on slopes. In Tree–crops interactions a physiological approach, eds. C.K. Ong, and P. Huxley, 19. Wallingford: CAB International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleadow, R.M., J.R. Evans, S. McCaffery, and T.R. Cavagnaro. 2009. Growth and nutritive value of cassava (Manihot esculenta Cranz.) are reduced when grown in elevated CO2. Plant Biology 11: 76–82. doi:10.1111/j.1438-8677.2009.00238.x.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, H.B., L.D. Rotstayn, J.L. McGregor, M.R. Dix, E.A. Kowalczyk, S.P. O’Farrell, J.L. Waterman, A.C. Hirst, et al. 2002. The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research.

  • Herrero, M.P., and R.R. Johnson. 1980. High temperature stress and pollen viability in maize. Crop Science 20: 796–800.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans, R.J., L. Guarino, M. Cruz, and E. Rojas. 2001. Computer tools for spatial analysis of plant genetic resources data: 1. DIVA-GIS. Plant Genetic Resources Newsletter 127: 15–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hijmans, R.J., S.E. Cameron, J.L. Parra, P.G. Jones, and A. Jarvis. 2005. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965–1978.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Howden, S.M., S.J. Crimp, and R.M. Nelson. 2010. Australian agriculture in a climate of change. In GREENHOUSE 2009: Climate change and resources, eds. I. Jubb, and P. Holper, CSIRO Publishing.

  • Huda, S., V. Sadras, S. Wani, and X. Mei. 2010. Food security and climate change in the Asia-Pacific region: Evaluating mismatch between crop development and water availability. 9th European IFSA Symposium, 4–7 July 2010, in Vienna, Austria.

  • Hunt, R.C. 2000. Labor productivity and agricultural development: Boserup revisited. Human Ecology 28: 251–277.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 94. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  • Jagadish, S.V.K., P.Q. Craufurd, and T.R. Wheeler. 2007. High temperature stress and spikelet fertility in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Journal of Experimental Botany 58: 1627–1635.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kakani, V.G., P.V.V. Prasad, P.Q. Craufurd, and T.R. Wheeler. 2002. Response of in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube growth of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) genotypes to temperature. Plant Cell and Environment 25: 1651–1661.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirono, D. 2010. Climate change in Timor Leste—a brief overview on future climate projections, 28. Aspendale: CSIRO National Research Flagships.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kunwar, B., H.A. Neves, W. Tambun, H. Koopman, R. Delarosa, and C. Bascilio. 2010. Proceedings of national workshop on sharing food security good practices in Timor Leste. Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries and European Commission, INGOs Food Security Coordination Group.

  • Lefroy, R.D.B. 2008. Australian agronomy abroad. In Global issues paddock action. Proceedings of the 14th Australian agronomy conference. September 2008, Adelaide, South Australia. www.regional.org.au/au/asa/2008/plenary/agronomyabroad/5942_lefroyrdb. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.

  • Ludwig F., and S. Asseng. 2006. Climate change impacts on wheat production in a Mediterranean environment in Western Australia. Agricultural Systems 90: 159–179.

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsui, T., K. Omasa, and T. Horie. 2001. The difference in sterility due to high temperature during the flowering period among japonica rice varieties. Plant Production Science 4: 90–93.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mazvimavi, K., S. Twomlow, P. Belder, and L. Hove. 2008. An Assessment of the Sustainable Uptake of Conservation Farming in Zimbabwe. Global Theme on Agroecosystems Report No. 19, 51. Bulawayo: International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics.

    Google Scholar 

  • McWilliam, A. 2003. New beginnings in East Timorese forest management. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies 34: 307–327.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakagawa, H., T. Horie, and T. Matsui. 2002. Effects of climate change on rice production and adaptive technologies. In Modelling the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia, eds. T.W. Mew, D.S. Brar, S. Peng, D. Dawe, and B. Hardy, Wallingford, Los Baňos: CABI, International Rice Research Institute.

  • National Statistics Directorate. 2005. Population Projections 2004–2050. Analysis of census results, report 1. General population census of Timor-Leste 2004, Dili, Timor Leste, 78. National Statistics Directorate.

  • National Statistics Directorate. 2010. Population and housing census 2010: Preliminary results, Dili, Timor Leste, 15. National Statistics Directorate.

  • Nunes, M. 2001. The natural resources of East Timor: A physical, geographical and ecological review. Conference on sustainable development in East Timor, eds. R. Anderson, and C. Deutsch, Dili, East Timor: Timor Aid Location.

  • Oxfam, 2008. Oxfam Australia Timor-Leste Food Security Baseline Survey Report. (Executive Summary, paragraph 3) http://www.oxfam.org.nz/resources/timor-leste%20food-security-baseline-survey.pdf. Accessed 2 Dec 2010.

  • Patterson, D.T., J.K. Westbrook, R.J.V. Joyce, P.D. Lingren, and J. Rogasik. 1999. Weeds, insects and diseases. Climate Change 43: 711–727.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Phillips, D.L. 2000. Social and economic conditions in East Timor. In International conflict resolution program, School of International Affairs Columbia University, New York, eds. J. Pederson, and M. Arnerberg. Oslo: Fafo Institute of Applied Social Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Piggin, C., and B. Palmer. 2003. An introduction to the ACIAR project “Seeds of Life—East Timor”. ACIAR Proceedings 113: 65–71.

  • Prasad, P.V.V., P.Q. Craufurd, R.J. Summerfield, and T.R. Wheeler. 2000. Effects of short episodes of heat stress on flower production and fruit-set of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Journal of Experimental Botany 51: 777–784.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, P.V.V., P.Q. Craufurd, V.G. Kakani, T.R. Wheeler, and K.J. Boote. 2001. Influence of high temperature during pre-and post-anthesis stages of floral development on fruit-set and pollen germination in peanut. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 28: 233–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, P.V.V., K.J. Boote, L.H. Allen, and J.M.G. Thomas. 2003. Super-optimal temperatures are detrimental to peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) reproductive processes and yield at ambient and elevated carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology 9: 1775–1787.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prasad, P.V.V., K.J. Boote, L.H. Allen, J.E. Sheehy, and J.M.G. Thomas. 2006. Species, ecotype and cultivar differences in spikelet fertility and harvest index of rice in response to high temperature stress. Field Crops Research 95: 398–411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richards, P. 1985. Indigenous agricultural revolution. London: Hutchison.

    Google Scholar 

  • Russell, W.M.S. 1988. Population swidden farming and the tropical environment. Population and Environment 10: 77–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Satake, T., and S. Yoshida. 1978. High temperature induced sterility in indica rices at flowering. Japanese Journal of Crop Science 47: 6–17.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sawadogo-Kaboré, S., M. Fosu, R. Tabo, R. Kanton, S. Buah, A. Bationo, S. Ouédraogo, S. Pale, et al. 2009. Improving crop productivity and farmer income using fertilizer microdosing and the warrantage system in the Volta Basin. International Forum on Water and Food II, Ethiopia, Nov. 2009. Vol. II, 30, PA014.

  • Schoper, J.B., R.K. Lambert, B.L. Vasilas, and M.E. Westgate. 1987. Plant factors controlling seed set in maize. Plant Physiology 83: 121–125.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Seeds of Life. 2007. Annual research report, 2006. www.seedsoflifetimor.org. Accessed 1 Dec 2010.

  • Seeds of Life. 2010a. Annual research report, 2009. www.seedsoflifetimor.org. Accessed 1 Dec 2010.

  • Seeds of Life. 2010b. Predicted changes to rainfall and temperature in Timor Leste due to climate change and its impact on agriculture, 8. Comoro Nicolao, Dili: Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd, C.J. 2009. Participation, authority, and distributive equity in East Timor development. East Asian Science, Technology and Society: An International Journal. doi:10.1007/s12880-009-9098-1.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh, U., P. Wilkens, I. Jahan, J. Sanabria, and S. Kovach. 2010. Enhanced efficiency fertilizers. Proceedings of the world congress of soil science, soil solutions for a changing world 1–6 August 2010, Brisbane, Australia. Published on DVD.

  • Soares, F.S. 2009. Progress report. (E-mail: flavianosrs@yahoo.com.au).

  • Turner, N.C., and R. Meyer. 2011. Synthesis of regional impacts and global agricultural adjustments. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, H. Lotze-Campen, and A.E. Hall, 156–165. Chichester: Wiley/Blackwell.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Turner, B.L., R.Q. Hanham, and A.V. Portararo. 1977. Population pressure and agricultural intensity. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 67: 384–396.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner, N.C., N. Molyneux, S. Yang, Y. Xiong, and K.H.M. Siddique. 2011. Climate change in south-west Australia and north-west China: Challenges and opportunities for crop production. Crop and Pasture Science 62: 445–456.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations Population Division. 2007. World population prospects: The 2006 revision. New York: United Nations.

  • Vadez, V., J. Kholova, S. Choudhary, P. Zindy, M. Terrier, L. Krishnamurth, P.R. Kumar, and N.C. Turner. 2011. Whole plant response to drought under climate change. In Crop adaptation to climate change, eds. S.S. Yadav, R. Redden, J.L. Hatfield, H. Lotze-Campen, and A.E. Hall, 186–197. Chichester: Wiley/Blackwell.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Visser, M.E., and C. Both. 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: The need for a yardstick. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 272: 2561–2569. doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wargiono, N., N. Richana, and H. Hidajat. 2002. Contribution of cassava leaves used as a vegetable to improve human nutrition in Indonesia. Proceedings of the VII Asian Cassava Research Workshop Oct 28–Nov 1, 2002, 5.

  • WFP/FAO. 2003. Special report. FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to Timor-Leste, 1 June 2003. http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/E79C5AC38A8E7ABCC1256D50003C3DA0-fao-tls-01jun.pdf. Accessed online 3 Feb 2011.

  • WFP. 2005. Food insecurity and vulnerability analysis Timor Leste. VAM unit. The United Nations World Food Programme. Timor Leste 2005. http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/vam/wfp067434.pdf. Accessed 20 Nov 2010.

  • WFP. 2010. Timor Leste Country report. Projected 2011 Needs. http://home.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/op_reports/wfp228586.pdf. Accessed 18 Nov 2010.

  • World Bank. 2007. World development report 2008. Agriculture for development, Washington, DC, World Bank, 365.

  • World Bank. 2008. Policy note on population growth and its implications in Timor-Leste. Washington, DC, World Bank, 55.

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Martin Browne, Myrtille Lacoste, Professor William Erskine, Adjunct Professor Harry Nesbitt and three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper and Sue Dodimead of the Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture for administrative support. We also thank the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research and AusAID for financial support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Seeds of Life/Fini ba Moris, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Comoro, Dili, Democratic Republic of Timor Leste

    Nicholas Molyneux, Robert L. Williams & Rebecca Andersen

  2. Directorate of Agriculture and Horticulture, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Comoro, Dili, Democratic Republic of Timor Leste

    Gil Rangel da Cruz

  3. The UWA Institute of Agriculture and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, M080, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Nicholas Molyneux, Robert L. Williams & Neil C. Turner

Authors
  1. Nicholas Molyneux
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Gil Rangel da Cruz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Robert L. Williams
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Rebecca Andersen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Neil C. Turner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nicholas Molyneux.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Molyneux, N., da Cruz, G.R., Williams, R.L. et al. Climate Change and Population Growth in Timor Leste: Implications for Food Security. AMBIO 41, 823–840 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0287-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0287-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation