Abstract
How to stabilize the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere depends crucially on baseline assumptions of future economic growth, energy demand and supply technologies, etc. In this paper we investigate how different assumptions about the future affect the necessary global policy measures to reach specific concentration targets for CO2. This is done by constructing two contrasting baseline scenarios within an intertemporal model of fossil fuel markets. We find that the appropriate CO2 emission and concentration paths for a given concentration target are very dependent on the baseline. Moreover, the impact on oil wealth for OPEC and other oil producers of stabilizing CO2 concentrations depends significantly both on the baseline and on whether the target is reached through carbon taxes or autonomous technological change in carbon-free energy sources. Carbon leakage through changes in international fossil fuel prices is found to be negligible and possibly negative.
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Kverndokk, S., Lindholt, L. & Rosendahl, K.E. Stabilization of CO2 concentrations: mitigation scenarios using the Petro model. Environ Econ Policy Stud 3, 195–224 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03354037
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03354037