Abstract
In the present work, seven statistical-routing models have been developed and applied to the Medjerdah River (Tunisia) for forecasting the extreme flood events at Jendouba for different forecasting horizons. The performance of the models are characterized by statistical measures of precision, peak error and peak delay between the measured and forecast flow and their variations. Due to the important number of criteria, a multi-criteria analysis is used to rank the models according to four forecasting horizons. The mixed models seem to be the best ones for short (2–4 h) as well as long (6–8 h) forecasting horizons.
Similar content being viewed by others

References
Brans, J. P.et al., 1984, ‘PROMETHEE: a New Family of Outranking Methods in Multi-Criteria Analysis’ inOperational Research '84, ed. J. P. Brans, North Holland.
Habaieb, H., 1987, ‘Contribution à l'Etude Critique des Algorithmes de Prévision des Crues en Temps Réel. Exemples de l'Aveyron et de la Medjerdah’,Thèse de doctorat de l'INP de Toulouse.
Habaieb, H., 1992, ‘Comparaison Numérique des Algorithmes de Prévision des Crues. Application a des Bassins Versants Belge, Francais et Tunisien’, Thèse de doctorat d'etat.Faculté des Sciences Agronomiques de Gand, Belgique.
Kalman, R. E., 1960, ‘New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems’,Trans. ASME Series D. Journal of Basic Eng., Vol. 82, pp. 33–45.
Roche, P. A. et al., 1987, ‘Guide de Prévision des Crues’,Société Hydro-technique de France, Paris.
Thirriot, C., 1968, ‘La Prévision des Crues et la Protection Contre les Inondations. Comparaison des Méthodes de Calcul de la Propagation des Ondes de Crue’S.H.F.X. eme journées de l'hydraulique, Question II rapport 10. Paris.
Thirriot, C. and Habaieb, H., 1987, ‘Examen de Quelques Algorithmes de Prévision des Crues sur l'Exemple de la Medjerdah’, inAnnales de Travaux Publics de Belgique, 1987:5.
Todini, E. and Bouillot, D., 1976, ‘Rainfall Runoff Kalman Filter model’, inSystem Simulation in Water Resources, edited by Vansteenkiste, G. C., North Holland 1976.
Troch, P. A. et al., 1991, ‘Operational Flood Forecasting On the River Meuse Using on-line Identification, in Hydrology for Water Management of Large Basins’,XXth General Assemly IUGG, Vienna, Austria.
Vincke, Ph., 1989,L'aide Multicritere à la Décision, Ed. PSI, 1989.
Young, P. C., 1984,Recursive Estimation and Time Series Analysis: An Introduction, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1984.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Masmoudi, M., Habaieb, H. The performance of some real-time statistical flood forecasting models seen through multicriteria analysis. Water Resour Manage 7, 57–67 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00872242
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00872242