Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence

  • Published:
Population Research and Policy Review Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Abbreviations

ALAs:

Americans living abroad

INS:

US Immigration and Naturalization Service

IRCA:

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986

CPS:

Current Population Survey

References

  • Bean, F.D., Vernez, G. & Keely, C.B. (1989). Opening and closing the doors: Evaluating immigration reform and control. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Birnbaum, Z.W. & Sirken, M.G. (1965). Design of sample surveys to estimate the prevalence of rare diseases: Three unbiased estimates. Washington, DC: National Center for Health Statistics, Series 2, No. 11. US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Espenshade, T.J. (1993). Can immigration slow US population aging?, Journal of Policy Analysis Management 13(4): 759–768.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fay, R.E., Passel, J.S. & Robinson, J.G. (1988). The coverage of population in the 1980 Census. 1980 Census of Population and Housing Evaluation and Research Reports, PHC 80-E4. Issued February 1988. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fernandez, E.W. (1987). Estimation of the net annual emigration of US born persons. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census, unpublished internal memorandum.

    Google Scholar 

  • Finifter, A. (1973). Emigration from the United States: An exploratory analysis. Unpublished paper presented at the Conference on Public Support for the Political System, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 13–17 August 1973.

  • Garcia y Griego, M. (1990). Mexico's policy issues after IRCA, pp. 39–40, in: G. Vernez (ed.), Proceedings of a Conference on the International Effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garvey, D. & McGuire, M. (1990). Survey estimates of gross migration flows in Ireland: Interim results of research work. Working Paper No. 2, Work Session on Migration Statistics, United Nations Conference of European Statisticians.

  • Gibson, C. (1975) The contribution of immigration to the United States population growth: 1790–1970, International Migration Review 9: 157–177.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gibson, C. (1992). The contribution of immigration to the growth and ethnic diversity of the American population, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 136(2): 157–175.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hatton, T.J. & Williamson, J.G. (1994). What drove the mass migrations from Europe. Population and Development Review 20(3): 533–560.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hill, K. (1981). A proposal for the use of information on residence of siblings to estimate emigration by age and sex, pp. 19-34 in Indirect Procedures for Estimating Emigration, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Papers, No. 18.

  • Himes, C.L. & Clogg, C.C. (1992). An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States, Population Index 58(4): 587–607.

    Google Scholar 

  • Institute of International Education (1993). Open doors 1992/93. New York: IIE Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalton, G. & Anderson, D.W. (1986). Sampling rare populations, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General) 149: 65–82.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kraly, E.P. (1992). Balancing the equation: Federal statistical resources for the measurement of alien emigration from the United States. Report prepared for the US immigration and Naturalization Service, Office of Plans and Analysis, RSD-0-30700.

  • Kraly, E.P. & Warren, R. (1991). Long-term immigration to the United States: New approaches to measurement, International Migration Review 25: 60–92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kraly, E.P. & Warren, R. (1992). Estimates of long-term immigration to the United States: Moving US statistics toward United Nations concepts, Demography 29(4): 613–626.

    Google Scholar 

  • Massey, D.S. (1986). The settlement process among Mexican migrants to the United States, American Sociological Review 51: 670–684.

    Google Scholar 

  • Montes, S. & Vasquez, J.J.G. (1988). Salvadoran migration to the United States. An exploratory study. Washington, DC: Center for Immigration Policy and Refugee Assistance, Georgetown University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J.S. (1985). Report on expert working group on estimates of undocumented immigration. Unpublished internal memorandum, US Bureau of the census, 15 October 1985.

  • Passel, J.S. & Peck, J.M. (1979). Estimating emigration from the United States: A review of data and methods. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Philadelphia.

  • Robinson, J.G., Das Gupta, P. & Ahmed, B. (1990). Evaluating coverage in the 1980 census. Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto, Ontario.

  • Rohinson, J.G., Ahmed, B., Das Gupta, P. & Woodrow, K.A. (1993). Estimation of population coverage in the 1990 United States census based on demographic analysis, Journal of the American Statistical Association 88: 1061–1071.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmertmann, C.P. (1992). Immigrants' ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility, Demography 29: 595–612.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sirken, M.D. (1970). Household surveys with multiplicity, Journal of the American Statistical Association 65: 257–266.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sirken, M.D. (1984). Discussion: Survey methods for rare populations, pp. 347–349 in: C.F. Cornell & R.M. Groves (eds.), Health Survey Research Methods, 1982, Publication No. (PHS) 84–3346. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Somoza, J.L. (1981a). A proposal for estimating the emigrant population by sex and age from special census questions, pp. 3-18 in Indirect Procedures for Estimating Emigration, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Paper 5, No. 18.

  • Somoza, J.L. (1981b). Indirect estimates of emigration: Application of two procedures using information on residence of children and siblings, pp. 35-60 in Indirect Procedures for Estimating Emigration. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) Papers, No. 18.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1989). Congressional Alert, dated 1 August 1989.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1990a). Counts of US personnel overseas - Fact sheet. Decennial Planning Division Memorandum (NEC) from Susan M. Miskura, dated 31 July 1990, No. 90-39.

  • US Bureau of the Census (1990b). United States population estimates, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. 1980 to 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1045. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Bureau of the Census (1990c). Migration between the United States and Canada, Current Population Reports, Series P-23, No. 161. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US Bureau of the Census (1991). Population trends and congressional apportionment. 1990 Census Profile, Number 1, March. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • US General Accounting Office (1988). The future flow of legal immigration to the United States. Program Evaluation and Methodology Division, PEMD-88-7.

  • US General Accounting Office (1989). Data not sufficient for proposed legislation. Program Evaluation and Methodology Division, PEMD-89-8.

  • US Immigration and Naturalization Service (1994). 1993 Statistical yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Kraly, E.P. (1985). The elusive exodus. Emigration from the United States, Population Trends and Public Policy Occasional Paper No. 8. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Passel, J.S. (1987). A count of the uncountable: Estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 Census, Demography 24: 375–393.

    Google Scholar 

  • Warren, R. & Peck, J.M. (1980). Foreign-born emigration from the United States: 1960–1970, Demography 17: 71–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1990a). Estimating unknown immigration flows with the Current Population Survey. Presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Association of American (Geographers, Toronto, Ontario, Canada).

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1990b). Emigration from the United States using multiplicity surveys. Presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1990c). Undocumented immigrants living in the United States, Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, Anaheim, California.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1990d). Preliminary results from the November 1989 CPS Supplement on Emigration and Americans Living Abroad. Unpublished document, dated 14 September 1990.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991a). Project D2: Preliminary estimates of undocumented residents in 1990. Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 75.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991b). Project D5: Preliminary estimates of emigration component. Preliminary Research and Evaluation Memorandum No. 78.

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1991c). Using census and survey data to measure undocumented immigration and emigration from the United States, Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 7: 241–251.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. (1992). A consideration of the effect of immigration reform on the number of undocumented residents in the United States, Population Research and Policy Review 11: 117–144.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1994). Immediate relatives of natives and immigrants. Unpublished manuscript.

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1995a). Finding an upper limit on recent net undocumented migration to the United States. Revised version of paper presented at the 1993 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, Miami Beach.

  • Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. (1995b). An analysis of net immigration and census coverage evaluation, Population Research and Policy Review (forthcoming).

  • Woodrow, K.A. & Passel, J.S. (1990). Post-IRCA undocumented immigration to the United States: An assessment based on the June 1988 CPS, pp. 33–72 in: F.D. Bean, B. Edmonston & J.S. Passel (eds.), Undocumented Migration to the United States: IRCA and the Experience of the 1980s, Washington, DC: The Urban Institute Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodrow, K.A. & Peregoy, A. (1991). Parents, siblings, and children: How many do immigrants and native-born persons have? Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington, DC, 20–23 March 1991.

  • Zaba, B. (1985). Measurement of emigration using indirect techniques: Manual for the collection and analysis of data. Belgium: Ordina Editions.

    Google Scholar 

  • Zaba, B. (1987). The indirect estimation of migration: A critical review, International Migration Review 21: 1395–1445.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York, Albany, Albany, New York, USA

    Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield

Authors
  1. Karen A. Woodrow-Lafield
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

This article is partially based on a paper presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Toronto, Canada, while the author was a member of the Population Analysis Staff of the US Bureau of the Census.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Woodrow-Lafield, K.A. Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence. Popul Res Policy Rev 15, 171–199 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00126136

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00126136

Key words