Militarisation of Antarctica

Abstract

In this chapter, we settle on the topical issue of militarisation for our scenarios. Antarctica is commonly perceived as immune from military competition. However, prior to the Antarctic Treaty, there was a small but significant history of military activity and skirmishes. The Antarctic Treaty has ensured that the ATA remains free from conflict, retains its non-militarised status, and has avoided the escalation of territorial disputes. The non-militarisation of Antarctica also performs a strategic role outside Antarctica, in providing a stable, southern buttress for other regional agreements that ban nuclear weapons. Antarctica’s geographic isolation and severe climate present huge costs, logistical barriers, and risks for military activity on the continent—particularly in East Antarctica. However, some technologies being deployed within the ATA may be ‘dual use’, in the sense of being able to be seamlessly re-purposed between scientific and military capabilities. The greatest risk here is the potential for dual-use equipment and personnel in the ATA to be re-purposed to support non-peaceful activities outside the ATA—on land, in the oceans, or in space. The modest frequency of compliance inspections and the need for highly technical expertise to detect breaches mean that prospects of policing this activity effectively are slight.