Does Covid-19 Spark the End of Globalisation?

Abstract

Scholars have argued that the spread of the Covid-19 virus is undermining globalisation and may ultimately prove a catalyst for de-globalisation. We debate this issue. Covid-19 is speeding the changing of the process of globalisation, which continues. In this sense, it can be viewed as a black swan event which, by arresting the free movement of people globally and constricting supply chains, is inhibiting trade. At the same time, Covid-19 has accelerated the uptake of digital communication via platforms such as zoom and skype. In support of our thesis that Covid-19 is accelerating a change in the nature of globalisation, we argue that globalisation had not ceased since the time when European powers first began venturing across the globe in pursuit of trade between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries. The study is intended to briefly survey the modern history of globalisation to create a platform for analysing the effect of Covid-19. The social and economic effect of pandemics in history is also discussed, in particular the Plague of Justinian, the Black Death and the Spanish flu. While the Economic Cycles theory does not provide an explanation for the effect of the pandemic on societies and economies, the theory of Hegemonic Cycles is more explanatory, enabling us to view the pandemic as an event that will probably affect global power relations. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the Covid-19 virus has brought into stark relief the apparent hegemonic rivalry of the United States and China. One country is, to date, the worst affected by the virus, the other is its place of origin. Our study shows that both countries are proponents of globalisation but expound different narratives concerning how the world can trade and prosper in the future.