Skip to main content

Comparative Investigation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Wind Power Forecasting

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Innovations in Cyber Physical Systems

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering ((LNEE,volume 788))

Abstract

Wind power unlike power generated from conventional sources is not constant. There are many factors that influence the power generated from wind energy, like wind speed, location, climate change etc. Owing to this, there is always uncertainty in wind power output. Thus, for proper load scheduling and better integration of wind power with the grid, it becomes essential to develop a robust wind power forecasting system. For developing a reliable forecasting system, it is essential to factor in all the possible factors that affect the wind power output and analyze a huge amount of data set for a higher accuracy rate. This paper proposes the use of two machine learning techniques, namely LASSO and XGBoost classifier, and a comparison is made between the two to find which technique is better for our task. For training and validation of this model, wind power data of the Kolkata region is taken. The result shows that XGBoost is better than LASSO for forecasting wind power accurately with a MAPE value of 1.121 for XGBoost and 62.1476 for LASSO.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 189.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 249.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Bhaskar M, Jain A, Venkata Srinath N (2010) Wind speed forecasting: present status. Power system technology (POWERCON), 2010 international conference, pp 1–6, 24–28 October 2010

    Google Scholar 

  2. Sharp J, Hodge B, Florita A, Margulis M, Mcreavy D (2010) The value of improved short-term wind power forecasting. In: 9th International proceedings on proceedings, pp 1–2. http://www.nrel.gov/publications.

  3. Orwig K, Ahlstrom M, Banunarayanan V, Sharp J, Wilczak J, Freedman J, Haupt S, Cline J, Bartholomy O, Hamann H, Hodge B-M, Finley C, Nakafuji D, Peterson J, Maggio D, Marquis M (2015) Recent trends in variable generation forecasting and its value to the power system. IEEE Trans Sustain Energy 6:924–933

    Google Scholar 

  4. Manwell JF, McGowan JG, Rogers AL (2010) wind energy explained: theory, design and application . John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, USA

    Google Scholar 

  5. Gasch R, Twele J (2011) Wind power plants: fundamentals, design, construction and operation. Springer, Berlin, Germany

    Google Scholar 

  6. Foley AM, Leahy PG, Marvuglia A, McKeogh SJ (2012) Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation. Renew Energy 37:1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Wang X, Guo P, Huang X (2011) A review of wind power forecasting models. Energy Proc 12:770–778

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Zhao X, Wang S, Li T (2011) Review of evaluation criteria and main methods of wind power forecasting. Energy Proc 12:761–769

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Dongmei Z, Yuchen Z, Xu Z (2011) Research on wind power forecasting in wind farms. In: Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE power engineering and automation conference (PEAM), Wuhan, China, 8–9 September 2011

    Google Scholar 

  10. Buhan S, Cadirci I (2015) Multistage wind-electric power forecast by using a combination of advanced statistical methods. IEEE Trans Ind Inf 11(5):1231–1242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Lu HJ, Chang GW (2018) Wind power forecast by using improved radial basis function neural network. In: 2018 IEEE power & energy society general meeting (PESGM), Portland, OR pp 1–5

    Google Scholar 

  12. Palomares-Salas JE, de I a Rosa JJG, Ramiro JG, Melgar J et al (2009) ARlMA vs. neural networks for wind speed forecasting. In: Proceedings of IEEE international conference on computational intelligence for measurement systems and applications, pp 129–133

    Google Scholar 

  13. Tesfaye A, Zhang JH, Zheng DH, Shiferaw D (2016) Short-term wind power forecasting using artificial neural networks for resource scheduling in microgrids. Int J Sci Eng Appl (iJSEA) 5(3)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Song YY, Lu Y (2015) Decision tree methods: applications for classification and prediction. Shanghai Arch Psychiatry 27(2):130–135. https://doi.org/10.11919/j.issn.1002-0829.215044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Sammut C, Webb GI (eds) (2011) Random forests. In: Encyclopedia of machine learning. Springer, Boston, MA

    Google Scholar 

  16. Friedman JH. IMS 1999 greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine Reitz lecture

    Google Scholar 

  17. Chen T, Guestrin C (2016) XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system. arXiv:1603.02754

  18. Gauraha N (2018) Introduction to the LASSO. Reson 23:439–464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12045-018-0635-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Foley AM, Leahy PG, Marvuglia A, McKeogh EJ (2012) Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation. Renew Energy 37(1):1–8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Chen T, Guestrin C (2016) XGBoost: a scalable tree boosting system. In: Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD international conference on knowledge discovery & data mining, San Francisco, CA, USA, 13–17 August 2016

    Google Scholar 

  21. Martinez-De-Pison FJ, Fraile-Garcia E, Ferreiro-Cabello J, Gonzalez R, Pernia A (2016) Searching parsimonious solutions with GA-PARSIMONY and XGBoost in high-dimensional databases. In: Grana M, LopezGuede JM, Etxaniz O, Herrero A, Quintian H, Corchado E (eds) International joint conference Soco’16-CISIS’16-ICEUTE’16, San Sebastián, Spain, 19–21 October 2016, vol 527, pp 201–210. Springer, Cham, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  22. Song RW, Chen SD, Deng BL, Li L (2016) XGBoost boosting for identifying individual users across different digital devices. In: Cui B, Zhang N, Xu J, Lian X, Liu D (eds) Proceedings of the web-age information management: 17th International conference, WAIM 2016, Nanchang, China, 3–5 June 2016, vol 9658, pp 43–54. Springer, Cham, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  23. Sheridan RP, Wang WM, Liaw A, Ma JS, Gifford EM (2016) XGBoost boosting as a method for quantitative structure-activity relationships. J Chem Inf Model 56:2353–2360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Ye J, Chow J-H, Chen J, Zheng Z. Stochastic gradient boosted distributed decision trees. In: Proceedings of the 18th ACM conference on information and knowledge management, CIKM ’09

    Google Scholar 

  25. Rodríguez O (2013) A generalization of ridge, lasso and elastic net regression to interval data. https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.3753.0883

  26. Arribas-Gil A, Bertin K, Meza C, Rivoirard V. Lasso-type estimators for semiparametric nonlinear mixed-effects models estimation. Stat Comput 24(3):443–460

    Google Scholar 

  27. Zou H, Hastie T (2005) Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. Stanford University, USA

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. Boulesteix A-L, De Bin R, Jiang X, Fuchs M (2017) IPF-LASSO: integrative-penalized regression with penalty factors for prediction based on multi-omics data, vol 2017, Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, Hindawi, pp 1748–670X. https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/7691937

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Kumar, A., Kumar, N., Singh, B., Chaudhary, A., Dikshit, K., Sharma, A. (2021). Comparative Investigation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Wind Power Forecasting. In: Singh, J., Kumar, S., Choudhury, U. (eds) Innovations in Cyber Physical Systems. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 788. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4149-7_46

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-4149-7_46

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-16-4148-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-16-4149-7

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics