Abstract
This final chapter argues that following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war the Caucasus has become fertile ground for the geopolitical ambitions of middle powers who are racing to fill the void of a post-U.S. regional order. The conflict has suddenly shifted regional equilibria, pushing Iran, Turkey, and Russia to compete for influence. The newly emerging balance of power is rendered more fragile by the intervention of extra-regional players such as Pakistan and Israel, as well as by China’s vested interests in strategic infrastructures in the Caucasus. This chapter finds that Iran, unprepared for a military and political proxy war in the Caucasus, has opted to retreat from the region. Iran’s strategy is best viewed as deliberate damage control: Tehran had the most to lose from the entrenchment of a hot conflict on its borders. Iran’s strategy has been effective in achieving most of the country’s fundamental security objectives but has resulted in a significant set-back in its regional influence. This research relies on a descriptive method based on a combination of historical analysis and media analysis. It draws on Iranian and international sources to provide a comprehensive overview of various regional and global interests at play in the conflict and uses secondary literature and think-tanks reports to reconstruct the conflict dynamic at play on the ground in Nagorno-Karabakh. This study finds that Iran has followed a coherent strategy throughout the Nagorno-Karabakh war which is consistent with their position on the conflicted territory since 1994, and which prioritises immediate security concerns over long-term political aims. The study was limited to publicly available data. Iran’s leadership choices are inferred through their public statements; although official’s rhetoric has been analysed and triangulated with other sources, limited accessibility of policymakers reduces certainty of results. Finally, the current chapter presents a comprehensive view of the strategic importance of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, highlighting the connection between global geopolitical dynamics, national interests, and the historical and humanitarian reality of the conflict.
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Notes
- 1.
COVID-19 is an acute contagious respiratory and vascular illness in humans caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), capable of producing severe symptoms and in some cases death. It was originally identified in 2019 and became pandemic in 2020. ‘CO’ stands for corona, ‘VI’ for virus, and ‘D’ for disease. Formerly, this disease was referred to as ‘2019 novel coronavirus’ or ‘2019-nCoV.’ (‘COVID-19 and vascular disease’. EBioMedicine. 58: 102,966. 2020. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2020.102966. Retrieved from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7438984/).
- 2.
Use of cluster bombs and drones was reported for the first time; the size of land lost by the Republic of Artsakh to Azerbaijan was disputed at the time, as well as its alleged strategic importance in the defence of Nagorno-Karabakh’s territory.
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Pegolo, V. (2021). The Impact of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict on the Middle East Region: Iran’s Policy of Strategic Retreat and the Dangers of a New Geopolitical Game in the Caucasus. In: Leandro, F.J.B.S., Branco, C., Caba-Maria, F. (eds) The Geopolitics of Iran. Studies in Iranian Politics. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-3564-9_22
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