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Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China

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Household and Living Arrangement Projections

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis ((PSDE,volume 36))

Abstract

In this chapter presented the dynamics of household and living arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western regions of China. The results showed that, if the current age distribution of rural-to-urban migrants with a high concentration of young people remains unchanged, the Middle region will have the most serious problems of population and household aging, followed by the Eastern region; population and household aging will be twice as severe in rural areas compared to urban areas in Middle and Eastern regions. Our multi-regional projections and analysis clearly showed that population and household aging problems under the current fertility policies unchanged would be much more serious than that under the two-child policy. Our study suggests that the inclusion of elderly parents in regional and rural to urban family migration, which implies co- or proximate-residence between old parents and adult children, would help to avoid the over-aging problems in rural areas and the Middle region; this strategy may result in a win-win outcome for both old and young generations.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The micro-data sample of the 6th census of China conducted in 2010 is not yet available for scholars and the public to use.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Study of Aging and Human Development Medical School, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Yi Zeng

  2. National School of Development Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China

    Yi Zeng

  3. Department of Sociology and Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Kenneth C. Land

  4. Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY, USA

    Danan Gu

  5. Center for Population Health and Aging Population Research Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Zhenglian Wang

  6. Household and Consumption Forecasting, Inc., Chapel Hill, NC, USA

    Zhenglian Wang

Authors
  1. Yi Zeng
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  2. Kenneth C. Land
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  3. Danan Gu
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  4. Zhenglian Wang
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Appendix 1: Parameters of Population and Household Projection at the Regional Level

Appendix 1: Parameters of Population and Household Projection at the Regional Level

 

Rural

Urban

Year

2000

2015

2030

2035

2050

2000

2015

2030

2035

2050

Eastern region

Total fertility rate

1.69

1.86

1.86

2.00

1.95

1.10

1.62

1.62

1.75

1.75

Male life expectancy

69.97

72.18

74.48

75.27

77.64

72.66

74.67

76.56

77.26

79.10

Female life expectancy

74.57

76.78

79.07

79.75

82.10

76.83

78.84

80.73

81.42

83.17

General marriage rate

0.0761

0.0759

0.0758

0.0755

0.0753

0.0684

0.0701

0.0698

0.0697

0.0691

General divorce rate

0.0022

0.0022

0.0021

0.0021

0.0021

0.0057

0.0057

0.0056

0.0056

0.0056

Mean age at birth

25.73

25.71

27.03

27.05

27.13

26.57

26.53

27.81

27.79

27.74

% of urban population

     

46

58

70

73

84

Middle region

Total fertility rate

1.91

2.11

2.111

2.27

2.21

1.15

1.69

1.69

1.83

1.83

Male life expectancy

68.87

71.04

73.31

74.09

76.42

71.46

73.44

75.30

75.98

77.80

Female life expectancy

72.18

74.31

76.52

77.18

79.46

75.33

77.30

79.16

79.83

81.54

General marriage rate

0.0562

0.0561

0.0559

0.0558

0.0556

0.0445

0.0456

0.0454

0.0453

0.0449

General divorce rate

0.0020

0.0020

0.0020

0.0019

0.0019

0.0050

0.0050

0.0050

0.0050

0.0050

Mean age at birth

25.03

25.01

26.29

26.31

26.40

25.47

25.43

26.65

26.64

26.59

% of urban population

     

33

45

58

62

74

Western region

Total fertility rate

2.11

2.33

2.33

2.51

2.45

1.21

1.78

1.78

1.92

1.93

Male life expectancy

65.07

67.13

69.26

70.00

72.21

71.26

73.23

75.09

75.77

77.58

Female life expectancy

69.08

71.12

73.24

73.87

76.05

75.03

77.00

78.84

79.52

81.22

General marriage rate

0.0703

0.0701

0.0700

0.0697

0.0695

0.0590

0.0605

0.0602

0.0602

0.0596

General divorce rate

0.0025

0.0025

0.0024

0.0024

0.0024

0.0062

0.0062

0.0062

0.0062

0.0062

Mean age at birth

24.83

24.81

26.08

26.10

26.18

25.47

25.43

26.65

26.64

26.59

% of urban population

     

29

38

47

50

58

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Zeng, Y., Land, K.C., Gu, D., Wang, Z. (2014). Dynamics of Households and Living Arrangements in the Eastern, Middle, and Western Regions of China. In: Household and Living Arrangement Projections. The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, vol 36. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8906-9_13

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