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Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Supply of Phosphate-Phosphorus

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The Impact of Climate Change on European Lakes

Part of the book series: Aquatic Ecology Series ((AQEC,volume 4))

Abstract

The transfer of phosphorus from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems is a key route through which climate can influence aquatic ecosystems. A number of climatic factors interact in complex ways to regulate the transfer of phosphorus and modulate its ecological effects on downstream lakes and reservoirs. Processes influencing both the amount and timing of phosphorus export from terrestrial watersheds must be quantified before we can assess the direct and indirect effects of the weather on the supply and recycling of phosphorus. Simulation of the export of phosphorus from the terrestrial environment is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to describe seasonal and inter-annual variations by existing process-based and empirical models. These variations are also strongly influenced by the history of the weather and by the frequency of extreme weather events. For example, the effects of storm runoff on the export of phosphorus can be very sensitive to levels of soil saturation and soil moisture, which are in turn influenced by the past history of precipitation and evapotranspiration. Inclusion of effects such as these is impossible using simple empirical models and difficult using process based models when model parameterization changes in response to antecedent conditions.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Glen George for carefully editing the manuscript for this chapter, and Pam Naden for reviewing the chapter and providing many useful comments. Mark Zion reviewed the chapter and also helped create the figures. We also thank all of the members of the CLIME project who contributed to a stimulating environment for examining an important problem.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. New York City Department of Environmental Protection, 71 Smith Avenue, Kingston, New York, 12401, USA

    Don Pierson, Karen Moore & Elliot Schneiderman

  2. University of Helsinki, Lammi Biological Station, Pääjärventie 320, FI-016900, Lammi, Finland

    Lauri Arvola

  3. Centre for the Environment, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland

    Norman Allott

  4. SYKE Jyväskylä, University of Jyväskylä, PO Box 35, FI-40014, Jyväskylä, Finland

    Marko Järvinen

  5. Department of Applied Sciences, Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dublin Rd, Dundalk, Ireland

    Eleanor Jennings

  6. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH26 OQB, Scotland

    Linda May

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  1. Don Pierson
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  2. Lauri Arvola
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Correspondence to Don Pierson .

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  1. Windy Hall Road, Bowness-on-Windermere, LA23 3HX, United Kingdom

    Glen George

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Pierson, D. et al. (2010). Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Supply of Phosphate-Phosphorus. In: George, G. (eds) The Impact of Climate Change on European Lakes. Aquatic Ecology Series, vol 4. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-2945-4_9

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