Abstract
The realization of a zero-carbon electricity system is of vital importance to a future zero-carbon energy system and society. Nuclear power and renewable energy are expected to contribute significantly to this in the future in Japan. Therefore, in the present study, their roles in future zero-carbon electricity system was examined using long-term scenario analysis from 2005 to 2100 based on an integrated analysis model. The analysis is conducted in three steps to (1) estimate electricity demand and load pattern based on lifestyle and industrial structure in the future using a bottom-up simulation sub-model; (2) plan the optimized power generation mix to satisfied obtained electrical demand and load subject to various constraints including natural resources, economic, environmental, geographic, natural conditions, etc. using an optimization sub-model (3) confirm the reliability of the obtained best mix power generation system by using an hour by hour simulation sub-model. The results give the schedule of nuclear and renewable energy development from 2005 to 2100 and show that they will contribute 60% and 40% respectively in terms of electricity production by 2100. Finally, the whole system is proven as technically feasible with the help of EV (Electric Vehicle) batteries and hydrogen for daily and seasonal electric storage respectively, operated based on smart control technologies.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank all members in the GCOE scenario planning committee, scenario-advanced technology joint meeting and scenario strategy meeting in Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University for helpful comments and support.
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Zhang, Q., Mclellan, B., Utama, N.A., Tezuka, T., Ishihara, K.N. (2011). Long-Term Scenario Analysis of a Future Zero-Carbon Electricity Generation System in Japan Based on an Integrated Model. In: Yao, T. (eds) Zero-Carbon Energy Kyoto 2010. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-53910-0_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-53910-0_2
Publisher Name: Springer, Tokyo
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