The Early Warning and Forecasting System (EWFS) for the Reduction of Serious Atmosphere-Hydrosphere Disasters

Abstract

The Early Warning and Forecasting System (EWFS) for the Reduction of Serious Atmosphere-Hydrosphere Disasters is expounded in this paper. The system can operate in real-time, has achieved obvious economic and social benefits, and was established about 6 years ago. The system concentrated initially on heavy rain-floods and typhoons.

EWFS consists of a pre-warning servicing system, an information system of disaster reduction, a synthetic database, disaster forecast and assessment, countermeasures for disaster reduction, and local demonstrating systems in six provinces and cities.

In the recent few years, EWFS has been operating in real-time, and has achieved more than 1 billion RMB economic benefit in the reduction of disaster losses, and has also achieved obvious social benefits. EWFS was established as a better base for modern China’s Preventing and Reducing Disaster Set-up (CPRDS) and China’s Centre of Disaster Reduction (CCDR).

This scientific system has been awarded the National Prize and the first class Prize of CAS.

The system is a highly scientific and technological system for disaster reduction, and can operate in real time. It opens up new ideas on disaster reduction.

Total losses resulting from Chinese natural disasters is about 3–6% of Chinese General National Production (CNP) which becomes an important factor, as it restricts rapid and sustained development of society and the economy of China. Atmosphere-Hydrosphere Disasters are concentrated on primarily for preventing and reducing disasters in China, because their losses represent about 60–70 % of Chinese total losses (Wang 1995).

In modern disaster prevention and reduction, the most urgent work is to establish China’s Preventing and Reducing Disaster Set-up (CPRDS) by extensive use of modern new technology. When we establish the CPRDS, an operating demonstrating scientific system is the CPRDS’s pioneer. If the scientific system was demonstrated successfully, it will inspire us to establish CPRDS and CCDR (Wang 1993).

About 6 years ago, based on CPRDS’s recognition of the serious consequences of atmosphere-hydro disasters, and more mature atmosphere-hydro science and technology; the Early Warning and Forecasting System (EWFS) for the Reduction of Serious Atmosphere-Hydrosphere Disasters was established. The system initially concentrated attention on heavy rain-floods and typhoons. In summer and autumn of 1994 and 1995, the system operated day by day in real-time, and it carried out disaster monitoring, forecast warning, assessment and countermeasures etc. A new system of disaster reduction was opened up, and it resulted in obvious social and economic benefits (Wang et al. 1996). Many foreign experts are paying attention to this system.