Skip to main content

Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU)

  • Chapter
  • First Online:

Abstracts

Uncertainties about climate and nexus issues stimulate new thinking about water planning. Building resilience involves the capacity to look ahead, ask “what if” questions about the future, remain flexible in the face of uncertainty, and seek out policies that provide good outcomes no matter what the future climate brings in terms of water impacts. This chapter introduces the idea of wicked problems characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and controversy. Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) strategies are appropriate for managing wicked problems. The shift to DMUU in the water sector involves a paradigm change because it calls for new modeling strategies, a new role for science in water planning, public engagement, knowledge mobilization, and learning to live with uncertainty.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD   109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

References

  • Abbott, David R. 2000. Ceramics and Community Organization among the Hohokam. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Abel, Nick, Russell Wise, Matthew Colloff, Brian Walker, James Bulter, Paul Ryan, Chris Normal et al. “Building Resilient Pathways to Transformation When No One Is in Charge: Insights from Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin,” Ecology and Society 21(2) (2016): 23. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08422-210223. Accessed June 22 2017.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. 2017. “Population Projections.” https://population.az.gov/population-projections. Accessed September 28 2017.

  • Bankes, Steve. 1993. “Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis.” Operations Research 41(3): 435–449.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brandt, Leslie A., David J. Nowak, Allison R. Bodine, Andrew Bell, Shannon Still, Patricia R. Butler, Andrea Dierich, Stephen D. Handler, Maria K. Janowiak, Stephan N. Matthews, Jason W. Miesbauer, Matthew Peters, Anantha Prasad, P. Danielle Shannon, Douglas Stotz, and Christopher W. Swanston. 2017 “Chicago Wilderness Region Urban Forest Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Urban Forestry Climate Change Response Framework Chicago Wilderness Pilot Project.” U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station General Technical Report NRS-168. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch-beta/pubs/54128. Accessed June 22 2017.

  • Chang, Heejun, G. Hossein Parandvash, and Vivek Shandas. 2010. “Spatial Variations of Single Family Residential Water Use in Portland, Oregon.” Urban Geography 31: 953–972.

    Google Scholar 

  • City of Phoenix Water Service Department. 2014. “Water Production and Water Use:  1990–2013.” Obtained through public record request.

    Google Scholar 

  • City of Tucson. 2017. “About Tucson Water (Part Two).” https://www.tucsonaz.gov/water/about-us-2. Accessed June 18 2017.

  • Colorado River Water Users Association. 2017. “Law of the River: The Colorado River Compact.” https://www.crwua.org/colorado-river/uses/law-of-the-river. Accessed September 23 2017.

  • Cook, Benjamin I., Toby R. Ault, and Jason E. Smerdon. 2015. Unprecedented 21st Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 1(1): https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400082. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082. Accessed June 23 2017.

  • Glionna, John M. 2014. “Drought—And Neighbors—Press Las Vegas to Conserve Water.” Los Angeles Times, April 20, 2014. http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-las-vegas-drought-20140421-story.html. Accessed August 16 2017.

  • Gober, Patricia. 2006. Metropolitan Phoenix: Place Making and Community Building in the Desert. Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gober Patricia, Craig Kirkwood, Robert C. Balling Jr., Andrew W. Ellis, and Stephanie S. Detrick. 2010. “Water Planning under Climatic Uncertainty in Phoenix: Why We Need a New Paradigm.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 100(2): 357–372.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gober, Patricia, Elizabeth A. Wentz, Tim Lant, Michael K. Tschudi, and Craig Kirkwood. 2011. “WaterSim: A Simulation Model for Urban Water Planning in Phoenix, Arizona, USA.” Environment and Planning B 38(2): 197–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gober, Patricia, Ray Quay, and Kelli L. Larson. 2016a. “Outdoor Water Use as an Adaptation Problem: Insights from North American Cities.” Water Resources Management 30(3): 899–912.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gober, Patricia, David A. Sampson, Ray Quay, Dave D. White, Winston T. L. Chow. 2016b. “Urban Adaptation to Mega-drought: Anticipatory Water Modeling, Policy, and Planning for the Urban Southwest.” Sustainable Cities and Society 27 (2016): 497–504.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Head, Brian. 2010. “Wicked Problems in Water Governance: Paradigm Changes to Promote Water Sustainability and Address Planning Uncertainty.” Urban Water Security Technical Alliance, Technical Report No. 38. http://www.urbanwateralliance.org.au/publications/UWSRA-tr38.pdf. Accessed May 29 2017.

  • House-Peters, Lily, Benjamin Pratt, and Heejun Chang. 2010. “Effects of Urban Spatial Structure, Sociodemographics, and Climate on Residential Water Consumption in Hillsboro, Oregon.” Journal of the American Water Resources Association 46(3): 461–472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kahn, Herman. 1984. Thinking the Unthinkable in the 1980s. New York: Simon & Schuster.

    Google Scholar 

  • Larson, Kelli L., Amber Wutich, Dave White, Tischa A. Munoz-Erickson, and Sharon L. 2011a. “Multifaceted Perspectives on Water Risks and Policies: A Cultural Domains Approach in a Southwestern City.” Human Ecology Review 18(1), 75–87.

    Google Scholar 

  • Larson, Kelli L., Dorothy C. Ibes, and Dave D. White. 2011b. Water Risks and Policy Strategies: A Tripartite Conceptual Approach? Environment and Behavior 43(3): 415–438.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lempert, Robert J., and Michael E. Schlesinger. 2000. “Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change.” Climatic Change, 45(3–4): 387–401.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lempert, Robert J., Steven W. Popper, and Steven C. Bankes. 2003. Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods of Quantitative, Long-term Policy Analysis. Santa Monica, CA: Rand.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luckingham, Bradford. 1989. Phoenix: The History of a Southwestern Metropolis. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meko, David M., Connie A. Woodhouse, Christopher A. Baisan, Troy Knight, Jeffrey J. Lukas, Malcolm K. Hughes, and Matthew W. Salzer. 2007. “Medieval Drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin.” Geophysical Research Letters 34 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2007GL029988/epdf. Accessed September 23 2017.

  • Millar, Constance I., Nathan L. Stephenson, and Scott L. Stephens. 2007. “Climate Change and Forests of the Future: Managing in the Face of Uncertainty.” Ecological Applications 17: 2145–2151.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murray-Darling Basin Authority. 2010. “Guide to the Proposed Plan, Volume 2: Technical Background.” https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/archived/guide_pbp/Guide-to-proposed-BP-vol2-0-12.pdf. Accessed June 23 2017.

  • Murray-Darling Basin Authority. 2017. “2017 Basin Plan Evaluation.” https://www.mdba.gov.au/basin-plan-roll-out/2017-basin-plan-evaluation. Accessed March 2 2018.

  • Neel, Rebecca, Edward Sadalla, Anna Berlin, Susan Ledlow, and Samantha Neufeld. 2014. “The Social Symbolism of Water-conserving Landscaping.” Journal of Environmental Psychology 40: 49–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quiggin, John. 2011. “Managing Risk in the Murray-Darling Basin,” In Basin FuturesWater Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin,” edited by D. Connell and R. Q. Grafton, 313–326. Canberra: Australia National University E-Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Redman, Charles L. 1999. Human Impacts on Ancient Environment. Tucson: University of Arizona Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sampson, D. A., Escobar, V., Tschudi, M. K., Lant, T., and Gober, P. 2011. “A Provider-based Water Planning and Management Model WaterSim 4.0 for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area.” Journal of Environmental Management, 92: 2596–2610.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sampson, D. A., Quay, R., and White, D. D. 2016. “Anticipatory Modeling for Sustainability in Phoenix.” Environmental Science & Policy 55: 36–46.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • San Francisco Indicator Project. 2014. “Water Use.” http://www.sfindicatorproject.org/indicators/view/3. Accessed June 23 2017.

  • Shandas, Vivek, and G. Hossein Parandvash. 2010. “Integrating Urban Form and Demographics in Water Demand Management: An Empirical Case Study of Portland Oregon (US).” Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 37: 112–128.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Southern Nevada Water Authority. 2015. “Water Resource Plan 2015.” https://www.snwa.com/assets/pdf/wr_plan.pdf. Accessed June 23 2017.

  • Stein, Bruce A., Amanda Staudt, Molly S. Cross, Natalie S. Dubois, Carolyn Enquist, Roger Griffis, Lara J. Hansen, Jessica J. Hellmann, Joshua J. Lawler, Erik J. Nelson, and Amber Pairis. 2013. “Preparing for and Managing Change: Climate Adaptation for Biodiversity and Ecosystems.” Frontiers of Ecological Environment 11((9): 502–510.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • US Bureau of the Census. 2006. Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2006 (125th Edition). “Large Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 1990–2005.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2005/compendia/statab/125ed.html. Accessed June 22 2017.

  • US Bureau of the Census. 2016. “Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1 2010 to April 1, 2016.” iiihttps://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2016_PEPANNRES&src=pt. Accessed September 23 2017.

  • US Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. 2007. “Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.” https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/programs/strategies/RecordofDecision.pdf. Accessed September 23 2017.

  • Wahlquist, Åsa. 2011. “The Media and the Guide to the Basin Plan.” Water Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin, edited by D. Connell and R. Q. Grafton, 115–134. Canberra, Australia: Australia National University E Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weir, Jessica K. 2011. “Water Planning and Dispossession.” In Basin Futures “Water Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin,” edited by D. Connell and R. Q. Grafton, 179–192. Canberra, Australia: Australia National University E Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • White, Dave D., Lauren Withycombe Keeler, Arnim Wiek, and Kelli L. Larson. 2015. “Envisioning the Future of Water Governance: A survey of Central Arizona Water Decision Makers.” Environmental Practice 17(1): (2015): 25–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wiek, Arnim, Lauren W. Keeler, Vanessa Schweizer, and Daniel J. Lang. 2013. “Plausibility Indications in Future Scenarios.” International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy 9(2/3/4): 133–147.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams, John. 2011. “Understanding the Basin and its Dynamics,” In Basin FuturesWater Reform in the Murray-Darling Basin,” edited by D. Connell and R. Q. Grafton, 1-38 Canberra, Australia: Australia National University E Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodhouse, Connie A., David M. Meko, Glen M. MacDonald, Dave W. Stahle, and Edward R. Cook. 2010. “A 1,200-year Perspective of 21st Century Drought in Southwestern North America.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 170(50): 21283–21288.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 The Author(s)

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Gober, P. (2018). Decision Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU). In: Building Resilience for Uncertain Water Futures. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71234-5_6

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71234-5_6

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-71233-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-71234-5

  • eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics