A Novel Impact Assessment Methodology for Evaluating Distributional Impacts in Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Policy

Abstract

While it is widely recognised that the impacts of both climate change and the policy response will be distributed, there is an absence of complete information regarding the socio-economic and geographic patterning of such impacts in the intra-national context. This paper seeks to address this gap, presenting a climate justice toolkit (indicator set and guidance) that enables the consistent assessment of distributional impacts of climate policy, and thus allows cumulative impacts to be assessed across the broad suites of policies that comprise national adaptation programmes. The objective in so doing is to inform the selection of appropriate policy options and to identify situations where supplementary policy may be required to redress negative or inequitable impacts.

Drawing on a pilot impact assessment of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme, this paper discusses the rationale behind the development of a climate justice indicator set and presents a guide to the screening of large policy suites for potential cumulative impacts across communities of living (households) and working (private and public sectors). The methodological perspectives discussed can be useful in studies of climate change and social issues elsewhere, particularly in assessing the likely ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of policy implementations.