Abstract
This chapter discusses the use of agent based and laboratory simulation methods for investigating preventive measures against crime. We distinguish anticipatory prevention that attempts to preclude that offenders and targets meet while no guardians are present, and mitigating prevention that when such meetings take place attempt to deflect the seriousness of crime or indeed interrupt its execution. After a brief discussion on how simulation studies can contribute to evaluation of measures, various agent based simulation studies on police strategies (anticipatory prevention) and laboratory studies on victim training (mitigating prevention) are reviewed.
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Notes
- 1.
The classical (non-criminological) example is Schelling’s (<CitationRef CitationID="CR29" >1987</Citation Ref>) differential moving tendency simulation: white and black pawns are randomly distributed on a chessboard. Repeatedly an arbitrary pawn may select to be relocated to a new square, where white pawns prefer squares next to other white pawns just a little bit more than next to black pawns and vice versa. In no time (i.e. in not too many iterations of the simulation) under this scheme almost all pawns are segregated in black and white neighbourhoods. (Notice that this simulation can be easily done “by hand” and does not need a computer).
- 2.
For example Gerritsen’s (<CitationRef CitationID="CR16" >2011</Citation Ref>) work on ABM modelling of aggression in crowds.
- 3.
There is an interesting research tradition in bringing ordinary people in such environments and look whether they will displaying criminal behaviour, as a function of environmental queues, e.g. in tax evasion simulation (Webley, Robben, Elffers, & Hessing, <CitationRef CitationID="CR35" >1991</Citation Ref>). Van Bavel (<CitationRef CitationID="CR33" >forthcoming</Citation Ref>) is reporting on theft experiments with ordinary people in the role of offenders. The crux in that type of experiments is of course how to manipulate the motivation of the prospective offenders.
- 4.
Notice that authors cited here did not present their work in terms of anticipatory prevention, which is a term introduced in the present chapter.
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Gerritsen, C., Elffers, H. (2017). Investigating Prevention by Simulation Methods. In: LeClerc, B., Savona, E. (eds) Crime Prevention in the 21st Century. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27793-6_15
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