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A Public Health Model for Simulating Policy Interventions to Reduce Nonmedical Opioid Use

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Book cover Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 319))

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Abstract

Reports on the development of a system dynamics simulation model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The study relies on historical trend data as well as expert panel recommendations that inform model parameters and structure. The model was used to assess simulated public health interventions for reducing initiation and nonmedical use of opioids. Results indicate that interventions which reduce the likelihood of informal sharing of leftover medicine could significantly reduce initiation and nonmedical use. Less effective are supply restrictions, such as drug take-back days, and interventions aimed at reducing the likelihood that nonusers would decide to initiate nonmedical use based on their interactions with nonmedical users. We conclude that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain can lead to unintended distal outcomes in the public sphere.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this research was provided by NIDA grant number 5R21DA031361-02. We appreciate Dennis McCarty, Ph.D., Aaron Gilson, Ph.D., Lynn Webster, M.D., Todd Bodner, Ph.D., and Neal Wallace, Ph.D. who served as advisors and provided valuable expert judgement and insights.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Systems Science Graduate Program, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA

    Alexandra Nielsen, Wayne Wakeland & Amanuel Zimam

Authors
  1. Alexandra Nielsen
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  2. Wayne Wakeland
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  3. Amanuel Zimam
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Alexandra Nielsen .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Computer Science, Monmouth University, West Long Branch, New Jersey, USA

    Mohammad S. Obaidat

  2. School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland

    Slawomir Koziel

  3. Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

    Janusz Kacprzyk

  4. School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland

    Leifur Leifsson

  5. Faculty of Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    Tuncer Ören

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© 2015 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

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Nielsen, A., Wakeland, W., Zimam, A. (2015). A Public Health Model for Simulating Policy Interventions to Reduce Nonmedical Opioid Use. In: Obaidat, M., Koziel, S., Kacprzyk, J., Leifsson, L., Ören, T. (eds) Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 319. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11457-6_17

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11457-6_17

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-319-11456-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-319-11457-6

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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