Abstract
The task of predicting the future worries not only futurologists, but also many researchers engaged in solving practical problems. The tools for such foresight are quite diverse, as are the tasks themselves for the solution of which they are used. One of the branches of knowledge where predictive tools have become widespread is economics. In this article, we propose an algorithm for predicting the dynamics of physical and human capital based on the ideas of N. Kaldor and T. Piketty about the nature of capital accumulation. In particular, our algorithm assumes the approximate constancy of the ratio of capital to output. The algorithm implies a sequential assessment of the investment rate, capital return and capital stock depreciation rate for further predicting capital dynamics using a logistic trajectory. As an example of using the algorithm, verification was carried out using statistical data of the US economy. The algorithm presented in the article can be used both to determine the average annual growth rate of potential GDP, and in related studies of the future dynamics of the economy capital resources.
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This article was prepared as part of the RFBR grant No. 20-010-00279 “An integrated system for assessing and forecasting the labor market at the stage of transition to a digital economy in developed and developing countries.”
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Akaev, A., Devezas, T., Sarygulov, A., Petryakov, A. (2022). Algorithm for Predicting the Dynamics of Physical and Human Capital. In: Jahn, C., Ungvári, L., Ilin, I. (eds) Algorithms and Solutions Based on Computer Technology. Lecture Notes in Networks and Systems, vol 387. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93872-7_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-93872-7_4
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