Abstract
The aim of the article is to present selected methods of duration analysis to assess the probability of exit from the real estate sale offer system, taking into account various types of competing risk (the year of submitting the property for sale). The study used the cumulative frequency function and the complement to unity of the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Using estimators, the authors compared the probability of withdrawing the real estate sale offer from the offer database due to: the sale of real estate and suspension or withdrawal of the offer. The analysis was carried out on the basis of data obtained from the West Pomeranian Association of Real Estate Brokers in Szczecin regarding the sale of residential real estate on the underdeveloped market—Szczecin. The survey is innovative because the calculation of the offer duration takes into account the properties that have been sold and are still current (on the day of the end of the survey). The probability of selling a residential property decreased significantly after 180 days in the MLS system. Apartments registered in 2018 and then in 2019 were the fastest to be sold. Due to a large number of censored observations, it was not possible to determine the survival function quartiles for 2017 and 2020.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anglin PM, Rutherford R, Springer TM (2003) The trade-off between the selling price of residential properties and time-on-the-market: the impact of price setting. J Real Estate Finance Econ 26(1):95–111. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1021526332732
Asabere PK, Huffman FE (1993) Price concessions, time on the market, and the actual sale price of homes. J Real Estate Finance Econ 6:167–174. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01097024
Balicki A (2006) Analiza przeżycia i tablice wymieralności. PWE, Warszawa
Bieszk-Stolorz B (2013) Analiza historii zdarzeń w badaniu bezrobocia. Volumina.pl Daniel Krzanowski, Szczecin
Bieszk-Stolorz B, Dmytrów K (2019) Prawdopodobieństwo wyjścia z bezrobocia rejestrowanego na przykładzie Szczecina. The Polish Statistician 64(11):7–24. https://doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0013.7585
Bieszk-Stolorz B, Markowicz I (2019) Analiza trwania w badaniach ekonomicznych. CeDeWu, Warszawa
Cirman A, Pahor M, Verbic M (2015) Determinants of time on the market in a thin real estate market. Inzinerine Ekonomika-Engineering Economics 26(1):4–11. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.26.1.3905
Cubbin J (1974) Price, quality and selling time in the housing market. Appl Econ 6:171–187. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036847400000017
Filippova O, Rehm M (2014) Market conditions, marketing time, and house prices. J Hous Res 23(1):45–56. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24862555. Accessed 14 Sept 2020
Gdakowicz A, Putek-Szeląg E (2020) The demand and supply analysis and comparison of dwellings in Szczecin. In: Bilgin MH, Danis H, Demir E, Tony-Okeke U (eds) Eurasian economic perspectives: proceedings of the 28th Eurasia business and economics society conference 15(1):169–184. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48531-3_12
Glower M, Haurin DR, Hendershott PH (1998) Selling time and selling price: the influence of seller motivation. Real Estate Econ 26(4):719–740. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00763
Haurin D, McGreal S, Alastair A, Brown L, Webb JR (2013) List price and sales prices of residential properties during booms. J Hous Econ 22:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhe.2013.01.003
Jud DG, Seaks TG, Winkler DT (1996) Time on the market: the impact of residential brokerage. J Real Estate Res 12(3):447–458
Kaplan EL, Meier P (1958) Non-parametric estimation from incomplete observations. J Am Stat Assoc 53
Kleinbaum D, Klein M (2012) Survival analysis: a self-learning text, 3rd edn. Statistics for biology and health. Springer Science + Business Media. http://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6646-9_1
Knight JR (2002) Listing price, time on market, and ultimate selling price: causes and effects of listing price changes. Real Estate Econ 30(2):213–237. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00038
Krainer J (2001) A theory of liquidity in residential real estate markets. J Urban Econ 49:32–53. https://doi.org/10.1006/juec.2000.2180
Kucharska-Stasiak E (1997) Nieruchomość a rynek. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa
Landmesser J (2013) Wykorzystanie metod analizy czasu trwania do badania aktywności ekonomicznej ludności w Polsce. Wydawnictwo SGGW, Warszawa
Leung CKY, Leong YCF, Chan IYS et al (2002) TOM: why isn’t price enough? Int Real Estate Rev 5(1):91–115
Liang C, Hui ECM, Yip TL (2018) Time on market (TOM): the impact of new residential stamp duty. Phys A 503:1117–1130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.08.126
Lin Z, Liu Y (2008) Real estate returns and risk with heterogeneous investors. Real Estate Econ 36(4):753–776. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6229.2008.00229.x
Lippman S, McCall J (1986) An operational measure of liquidity. Am Econ Rev 76(1):43–55
Markowicz I (2012) Statystyczna analiza żywotności firm. Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego, Szczecin
Miller NG (1978) Time on the market and the selling price. J Am Real Estate Urban Econ Assoc 6:164–174. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00174
Narodowy Bank Polski (2020) Informacja o cenach mieszkań i sytuacji na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych w Polsce w I kwartale 2020 r. https://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/publikacje/rynek_nieruchomosci/index2.html. Accessed 14 Sept 2020
Nowak B (2019) Ile czasu trwa sprzedaż nieruchomości? https://www.morizon.pl/blog/czas-sprzedazy-nieruchomosci/. Accessed 14 Sept 2020
Ong SE, Koh YC (2000) Time on-market and price trade-offs in high-rise housing sub-markets. Urban Stud 37(11):2057–2071. https://doi.org/10.1080/713707223
Springer TM (1996) Single-family housing transactions: seller motivations, price, and marketing time. J Real Estate Finance Econ 13:237–254. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00217393
Walczak A (2018) Ile czasu trwa sprzedaż mieszkania—analiza. https://gratka.pl/blog/nieruchomosci/ile-czasu-trwa-sprzedaz-mieszkania-analiza/14802/. Accessed 14 Sept 2020
Yavas A, Yang S (1995) The strategic role of listing price in marketing real estate: theory and evidence. Real Estate Econ 23(3):347–368. https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.00668
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2021 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Putek-Szeląg, E., Gdakowicz, A. (2021). Application of Duration Analysis Methods in the Study of the Exit of a Real Estate Sale Offer from the Offer Database System. In: Jajuga, K., Najman, K., Walesiak, M. (eds) Data Analysis and Classification. SKAD 2020. Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75190-6_10
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-75190-6_10
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-75189-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-75190-6
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)