Abstract
Epidemiological studies of the health effects of outdoor air pollution have suffered from a number of methodological difficulties. These include major problems of estimating exposure; confounding due to socioeconomic deprivation and other factors; failure to account for possible spatial dependence induced by unmeasured covariates with smooth spatial variation; and the potential for bias arising from approximation and aggregation in the data. We present a flexible modeling framework using recently developed Bayesian spatial regression methods to address some of these issues. We apply this approach to a study of the relation of London traffic pollution to the incidence of respiratory ailments in infants using the recently available Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) dataset.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anderson, H., Butland, B., and Strachan, D. (1994). Trends in prevalence and severity of childhood asthma. British Medical Journal 308, 1600–1604.
Anderson, H. R., Ponce de Leon, A., Bland, J. M., Bower, J. S., Emberlin, J., and Strachan, D. P. (1998). Air pollution, pollens, and daily admissions for asthma in London 1987–92. Thorax 53, 842–848.
Bernardinelli, L., Pascutto, C., Best, N., and Gilks, W. (1997). Disease mapping with errors in covariates. Statistics in Medicine 16, 741–752.
Besag, J. (1974). Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological) 36, 192–236. (With discussion).
Besag, J., York, J., and Mollié, A. (1991). Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 43, 1–59. (With discussion).
Best, N., Bennett, J., Cockings, S., Falconer, S., Maheswaran, R., Wakefield, J., Smith, A., and Elliot, P. (1998). Small area mapping and statistical analyses of variations in disease risk and possible explanatory factors in the Thames Regions. Tech. rep., Department of Epidemiology & Public Health, Imperial College, London.
Best, N. G., Ickstadt, K., and Wolpert, R. L. (1998b). Spatial Poisson regression for health and exposure data measured at disparate resolutions. Journal of the American Statistical Association 95 1076–1088.
Bithell, J. F., Dutton, S. J., Neary, N. M., and Vincent, T. J. (1995). Controlling for socio-economic confounding using regression methods. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Supplement 2 49, S15–S19.
Breslow, N. E. and Day, N. E. (1980). Statistical methods in cancer research. Volume 1-The analysis of case-control studies. No. 32 in IARC Scientific Publications. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon.
Briggs, D. J., Collins, S., Elliott, P., Fischer, P., Kingham, S., Lebret, E., Pryl, K., van Reeuwijk, H., Smallbone, K., and van der Veen, A. (1997). Mapping urban air pollution using GIS: A regression-based approach. International Journal of Geographic Information Science 11, 699–718.
Brunekreef, B., Dockery, D. W., and Krzyanowski, M. (1995). Epidemiologic studies on short-term effects of low levels of major ambient air pollution components. Environmental Health Perspectives 103(Supplement 2), 3–13.
Brunekreef, B., Janssen, N. A. H., de Hartog, J., Harssema, H., and Knape, M. (1997). Air pollution from truck traffic and lung function in children living near motorways. Epidemiology 8, 298–303.
Buckingham, C., Clewley, L., Hutchinson, D., Sadler, L., and Shah, S. (1997). London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Tech. rep., London Research Centre.
Burney, P. (1988). Asthma deaths in England and Wales 1931–85: evidence for a true increase in asthma mortality. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 42, 316–320.
Carr-Hill, R., Hardman, G., Martin, S., Peacock, S., Sheldon, T., and Smith, P. (1994). A formula for distributing NHS revenues based on small area use of hospital beds. Tech. rep., Occasional Paper Series, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
Carstairs, V. and Morris, R. (1991). Deprivation and health in Scotland. Aberdeen University Press, Aberdeen.
Chestnut, L. G., Schwartz, J., Savitz, D. A., and Burchfiel, C. M. (1989). Pulmonary function and ambient particulate matter: epidemiological evidence from NHANES I. Arch Environ Health 46, 135–144.
Clayton, D. G. and Bernardinelli, L. (1992). Bayesian methods for mapping disease risk. In Elliott et al. (1992), chap. 18, 205–220. Paperback edition published 1996.
Committee of Medical Effects of Air Pollution (1995a). Asthma and outdoor air pollution. Her Majesty’s Stationary Office, London.
Committee of Medical Effects of Air Pollution (1995b). Non-biological particles and health. Her Majesty’s Stationary Office, London.
Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly of the American Thoracic Society (1996). Health effects of outdoor pollution. American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine 153, 3–50.
Cummins, P. and Rathwell, T. (1991). Geographical Information Systems and the National Health Service. Tech. rep., Association for Geographic Information Education, Training and Research Publication No.3.
Department of Health (1998). How H ES Data is Processed 1996/97 Datayear v. 3.0. SD2HES.
Dixon, J., Sanderson, C., Elliott, P., Walls, P., Jones, J., and Petticrew, M. (1998). Assessment of the reproducibility of clinical coding in routinely collected hospital activity data: a study of two hospitals. J Pub Health Med 20, 63–69.
Dockery, D., Pope, III, C., Xiping, X., Spengler, J., Ware, J., Fay, M., Ferris, B., and Speizer, F. (1993). An association between air pollution and mortality in six US cities. New England Journal of Medicine 329, 1753–1759.
Dockery, D. W., Spengler, J. D., Reed, M. P., and Ware, J. (1981). Relationships among personal, indoor and outdoor NO2 measurements. Environment International 5, 101–107.
Duhme, H., Weiland, S. K., Keil, U., Kraemer, B., Schmid, M., and Stender, M. (1996). The association between self-reported symptoms of asthma and allergic rhinitis and self-reported traffic density on street of residence in adolescents. Epidemiology 7, 578–582.
Edwards, J., Walters, S., and Griffiths, R. (1994). Hospital admissions for asthma in preschool children: relationship to major roads in Birmingham, United Kingdom. Archives of Environmental Health 49, 223–227.
Elliott, P., Cuzick, J., English, D., and Stern, R., eds. (1992). Geographical and environmental epidemiology: Methods for small-area studies. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Paperback edition published 1996.
Gardner, M. T., Winter, P. D., and Barker, D. J. P. (1984). Atlas of mortality from selected diseases in England and Wales 1968–1978. Wiley, Chichester.
Gatrell, A. C., Dunn, C. E., and Boyle, P. J. (1991). The relative utility of the Central Postcode Directory and Pinpoint Address Code in applications of Geographical Information Systems. Environment and Planning A 23, 1447–1458.
Gatrell, A. C. and Senior, M. (1999). Health and healthcare applications. In Geographical Information Systems: Principles, Techniques, Applications and Management, eds. P. Longley, M. Goodchild, D. Maguire, and D. Rhind, vol. 2, 925–938. John Wiley & Sons.
Greenberg, M. R. (1983). Urbanization and cancer mortality. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Greenland, S. (1992). Divergent biases in ecologic and individual-level studies. Statistics in Medicine 11, 1209–1223.
HMSO (1994). Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution. Eighteenth Report. Transport and the Environment. HMSO, London.
Hoek, G., Brunekreef, B., and Hofschreuder, P. (1989). Indoor exposure to airborne particles and nitrogen dioxide during an air pollution episode. J Air Poll Contr Assoc 39, 1348–1349.
Howe, H. L., Keller, J. E., and Lehnherr, M. (1993). Relation between population density and cancer incidence, Illinois, 1986–90. Am J Epidemiol 138, 29–36.
Jolley, D., Jarman, B., and Elliott, P. (1992). Socio-economic confounding. In Elliott et al. (1992), chap. 11, 115–124. Paperback edition published 1996.
Kelsall, J. E. and Wakefield, J. C. (1999). Discussion of ‘Bayesian models for spatially correlated disease and exposure data’ by Best et al. In Bayesian Statistics 6, eds. J. M. Bernardo, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, and A. F. M. Smith, 131–156. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
King, G. (1997). A solution to the ecological inference problem. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Kleinschmidt, I., Hills, M., and Elliott, P. (1995). Smoking behaviour can be predicted by neighbourhood deprivation measures. J Epidemiol Community Health 49(Supplement 2), S72–S77.
Knorr-Held, L. and Besag, J. (1998). Modelling risk from a disease in time and space. Statistics in Medicine 17, 2045–2060.
Livingstone, A. E., Shaddick, G., Grundy, C., and Elliott, P. (1996). Do people living near inner city main roads have more asthma needing treatment? Case-control study. British Medical Journal 312, 676–677.
Mage, D. T. and Buckley, T. J. (1995). The relationship between personal exposures and ambient concentrations of particulate matter. Presented at the 88th Annual Meeting of the Air and Waste Management Association, San Antonio, TX.
McCullagh, P. and Neider, J. A. (1989). Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall, London.
McKee, M. and Petticrew, M. (1993). Disease staging-a case-mix system for purchasers? J Pub Health Med 15, 25–36.
Mollié, A. (1996). Bayesian mapping of disease. In Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice, eds. W. R. Gilks, S. Richardson, and D. J. Spiegelhalter, 359–379. Chapman & Hall, New York, NY, USA.
Murakami, M., Ono, M., and Tamura, K. (1990). Health problems of residents along heavy-traffic roads. Journal of Human Ergology 19, 101–106.
MVA Limited (1999). London Transportation Studies Technical Note 25: B1.10 Base Forcast Validation. Tech. rep., MVA Limited, 115 Shaftesbury Avenue, London.
Noy, D., Brunekreef, B., Boleij, J. S. M., Houthuijs, D., and De Koning, R. (1990). The assessment of personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide in epidemiological studies. Environment International 12, 407–411.
Osterlee, A., Drijver, M., Lebret, E., and Brunekreef, B. (1996). Chronic respiratory symptoms in children and adults living along streets with high traffic density. Occupational Environment Medicine 53, 241–247.
Ozkaynak, H. and Spengler, J. (1996). The role of outdoor particulate matter in assessing total human exposure. In Particles in Outdoor Air: Concentrations and Health Effects, eds. R. Wilson and J. Spengler, 63–84. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Parkin, D. M., Whelan, S. L., Ferlay, J., Raymond, L., and Young, J. (1997). Cancer incidence in Five Continents. IARC Scientific Publications No. 143, Lyon.
Pershagen, G., Rylander, E., Norberg, S., Eriksson, M., and Nordeil, S. (1995). Air pollution involving nitrogen dioxide exposure and wheezing bronchitis in children. International Journal of Epidemiology 24, 1147–1153.
Pope, C., Thun, M., Namboodiri, M., Dockery, D., Evans, J., Speizer, F., and Heath, C. (1995). Particulate air pollution as a predictor of mortality in a prospective study of US adults. American Journal of Respiratory Critical Care Medicine 151, 669–674.
Quackenboss, J. J., Krzyanowski, M., and Lebowitz, M. D. (1991). Exposure assessment approaches to evaluate respiratory health effects of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology 1, 83–106.
Quackenboss, J. J., Spengler, J., Kanarek, M. S., Letz, R., and Duffy, C. P. (1986). Personal exposure to nitorgen dioxide: relationship to indoor/outdoor air quality and activity patterns. Environ Sci Tecnol 20, 775–783.
Raper, J. F., Rhind, D. W., and Shepherd, J. W. (1992). Postcodes: the new geography. Longman Group UK Limited, Essex.
Richardson, S. (1992). Statistical methods for geographical correlation studies. In Elliott et al. (1992), chap. 17, 181–204. Paperback edition published 1996.
Richardson, S., Monfort, C., Green, M., Draper, G., and Muirhead, C. (1995). Spatial variation of natural radiation and childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain. Statistics in Medicine 14, 2487–2501.
Roberts, G. O. (1996). Markov chain concepts related to sampling algorithms. In Markov chain Monte Carlo Methods in practice, 45–58. Chapman & Hall, New York, NY, USA.
Robinson, W. S. (1950). Ecological correlations and the behaviour of individuals. American Sociological Review 15, 351–357.
Roemer, W., Hoek, G., and Brunekreef, B. (1993). Effect of ambient winter air pollution on respiratory health of children with chronic respiratory symptoms. Am Rev Respir Dis 147, 118–124.
Schwartz, J. (1989). Lung function and chronic exposure to air pollution: a cross-sectional analysis of NHANES II. Environ Research 50, 309–321.
Schwartz, J. (1993). Particulate air pollution and chronic respiratory disease. Environmental Research 62, 7–13.
Schwartz, J. (1994). Air pollution and daily mortality: a review and metaanalysis. Environmental Research 64, 36–52.
Sheldon, T. A., Smith, P., Borowitz, B., Martin, S., and Carr-Hill, R. (1994). Attempt at deriving a formula for setting general practitioner fundholding budgets. British Medical Journal 309, 1059–1064.
Shima, M. and Adachi, M. (1998). Indoor nitrogen dioxide in homes along trunk roads with heavy traffic. Occup Environ Med 55, 428–433.
Smith, R. and Jarvis, C. (1998). Just the medicine. Mapping Awareness 12, 30–33.
Spiegelhalter, D., Thomas, A., and Best, N. (1999). On-line User Manual. WinBUGS user manual, version 1.2. URL http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs.
Strachan, D. P. (1991). Damp housing, mould allergy and childhood asthma. Proc R Coll Physicians Edinb 21, 140–146.
Strachan, D. P., Anderson, H. R., Limb, E. S., O’Neill, A., and Wells, N. (1994). A national survey of asthma prevalence, severity, and treatment in Great Britain. Arch Dis Child 70, 174–178.
Urell, M. and Samet, J. (1993). Particulate air pollution and health — new evidence on an old problem. Am Rev Respir Dis 147, 1334–1335.
Vostal, J. J. (1994). Physiologically based assessment of human exposure to urban air pollutions and its significance for public health risk. Environmental Health Perspectives 102(Supplement 4), 101–106.
Waldron, G., Pottle, B., and Dod, J. (1995). Asthma and motorways — one district’s experience. Journal of Public Health Medicine 17, 85–89.
Wallace, L. (1996). Indoor particles: a review. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 46, 98–126.
Walshe, K., Harrison, N., and Renshaw, M. (1993). Comparison of the quality of patient data collected by hospital and departmental computer systems. Health Trends 25, 105–108.
Weiland, S., Mundt, K., Ruckmann, A., and Keil, U. (1994). Self-reported wheezing and allergic rhinitis in children and traffic density on street of residence. AEP 4, 243–247.
Williams, B. (1997). Utilisation of national health service hospital in England by private patients 1989–95. Health Trends 29, 21–25.
Williams, D. R. R., Anthony, P., Young, R. J., and Tomlinson, S. (1994). Interpreting hospital admissions data across the Korner divide: the example of diabetes in the North Western region. Diabetic Med 11, 166–169.
Wjst, M., Reitmeir, P., Dold, S., Wulff, A., Nicolai, T., Freifrau von Loeffelholz-Colberg, E., and von Mutius, E. (1993). Road traffic and adverse effects on respiratory health in children. British Medical Journal 307, 596–600.
Wolpert, R. L. and Ickstadt, K. (1998). Simulation of L’evy random fields. In Practical Nonparametric and Semiparametric Bayesian Statistics, eds. D. Dey, P. Müller, and D. Sinha, vol. 133 of Lecture Notes in Statistics, 227–242. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, USA.
References
American Thoracic Society, Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly, Bascom, R., Bromberg, P.A., Costa, D.A., Devlin, R., Dockery, D.W., Frampton, M.W., Lambert, W., Samet, J.M., Speizer, F.E. and Utell, M. Health effects of outdoor air pollution. Part 1. Am J Resp Crit Care Med 1996;153:3–50.
American Thoracic Society, Committee of the Environmental and Occupational Health Assembly, Bascom, R., Bromberg, P.A., Costa, D.A., Devlin, R., Dockery, D.W., Frampton, M.W., Lambert, W., Samet, J.M., Speizer, F.E. and Utell, M. Health effects of outdoor air pollution. Part 2. Am J Resp Crit Care Med 1996;153:477–498.
Samet, J.M., Cushing, A.H., Lambert, W.E., Hunt, W.C., McLaren, L.C., Young, S.A. and Skipper, B.J. Comparability of parent-reported respiratory illnesses to clinical diagnoses. Am Rev Respir Dis 1993,148:441–446.
Samet, J.M. and Utell, M.J. The risk of nitrogen dioxide: What have we learned from epidemiological and clinical studies? Toxicol Indust Health 1990; 6: 247–262.
Smith, K.R., Samet, J.M., Romieu, I. and Bruce, N. Air pollution and acute lower respiratory infections in children. Thorax 1999 (submitted).
References
Box G.E.P., (1979). Robustness in the strategy of scientific model building. In Robustness in Statistics, 201–236. Academic Press, New York, NY, USA
Buckingham, C., Clewley, L., Hutchinson, D., Sadler, L., and Shah, S. (1997). London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Tech. rep., London Research Centre.
MVA Limited (1999). London Transportation Studies Technical Note 25: Bl.10 Base Forcasi Validation. Tech. rep., MVA Limited, 115 Shaftesbury Avenue, London.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this paper
Cite this paper
Best, N.G. et al. (2002). Modeling the Impact of Traffic-Related Air Pollution on Childhood Respiratory Illness. In: Gatsonis, C., et al. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol 162. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-0035-9_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-0035-9_3
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-95169-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-4613-0035-9
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive