Abstract
Probabilistic systems for diagnosing blue babies are constructed by model selection methods applied to a database of cases. Their performance are compared with a system built primarily by use of expert knowledge. Results indicate that purely automatic methods do not quite perform at the level of expert based systems, but when expert knowledge is incorporated properly, the methods look very promising.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification.IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,19, 716–723.
Andersen, L. R, Krebs, J. H., and Andersen, J. D. (1991). STENO: An expert system for medical diagnosis based on graphical models and model search.Journal of Applied Statistics,18, 139–153.
Andersen, S. K., Olesen, K. G., Jensen, F. V., and Jensen, F. (1989). HUGIN - A shell for building Bayesian belief universes for expert systems. In Proc. 11th Int. Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 1080–1085.
Badsberg, J. H. (1991). A guide to CoCo. Technical Report R-91-43, Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science, Aalborg University.
Dawid, A. R (1979). Conditional independence in statistical theory (with discussion).Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B,41, 1–31.
Dawid, A. P. (1982). The well-calibrated Bayesian (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 605–613.
Dawid, A. P. (1986). Probability forecasting. In Kotz, S. and Johnson, N. L., editors, Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences, Volume 4, Wiley, New York.
Dawid, A. P. (1992). Applications of a general propagation algorithm for probabilistic expert systems.Statistics and Computing, 2, 25–36.
Edwards, D. and Havránek, T. (1985). A fast procedure for model search in multidimensional contingency tables.Biometrika, 72, 339–351.
Franklin, R. C. G., Spiegelhalter, D. J., Macartney, F., and Bull, K. (1989). Combining clinical judgements and statistical data in expert systems: over the telephone management decisions for critical congenital heart disease in the first month of life.Int. J. of Clinical Monitoring and Computing, 6, 157–166.
Franklin, R. C. G., Spiegelhalter, D. J., Macartney, F., and Bull, K. (1991). Evaluation of a diagnostic algorithm for heart disease in neonates.British Medical Journal, 302, 935–939.
Frydenberg, M. (1989). The chain graph Markov property.Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,17, 333–353.
Højsgaard, S., Skjøth, F., and Thiesson, B. (1992). User’s guide to BIFROST. Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science, Aalborg University.
Højsgaard, S. and Thiesson, B. (1993). BIFROST — Block recursive models Induced From Relevant knowledge, Observations and Statistical Techniques. To appear in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis.
Jensen, F. V., Lauritzen, S. L., and Olesen, K. G. (1990). Bayesian updating in causal probabilistic networks by local computation.Computational Statistics Quarterly,4, 269–282.
Kreiner, S. (1989). User’s guide to DIGRAM - a program for discrete graphical modelling. Tech. Report 89 - 10, Statistical Research Unit, Univ. of Copenhagen.
Lauritzen, S. L. (1989). Mixed graphical association models (with discussion). Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,16, 273–306.
Lauritzen, S. L. (1993). The EM algorithm for graphical association models with missing data. To appear in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis.
Lauritzen, S. L. and Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1988). Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their application to expert systems (with discussion).Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 50, 157–224.
Lauritzen, S. L. and Wermuth, N. (1989b). Graphical models for associations between variables, some of which are qualitative and some quantitative. Annals of Statistics, 17, 31–57.
Murphy, A. H. and Winkler, R. L. (1977). Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature.Applied Statistics,26, 41–47.
Murphy, A. H. and Winkler, R. L. (1984). Probability forecasting in meteorology.Journal of the American Statistical Association,79, 489–500.
Patefield, W. M. (1981). AS 159. An efficient method of generating random rxc tables with given row and column totals.Applied Statistics,30, 91–97.
Shenoy, P. P. and Shafer, G. R. (1990). Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation. In Shachter, R. D. et al., editors, Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence IV, pages 169–198, Amsterdam. North-Holland.
Spiegelhalter, D. J., Dawid, A. P., Lauritzen, S. L., and Cowell, R. G. (1993). Bayesian analysis in expert systems (with discussion).Statistical Science,8, 219–247 and 204–283.
Thiesson, B. (1991). (G)EM algorithms for maximum likelihood in recursive graphical association models. Master’s thesis, Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science, Aalborg University.
Wermuth, N. (1976). Model search among multiplicative models.Biometrics,32, 253–263.
Wermuth, N. and Lauritzen, S. L. (1990). On substantive research hypotheses, condi-tional independence graphs and graphical chain models (with discussion).Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B,52, 21–72.
Whittaker, J. (1990). Graphical Models in Applied Multivariate Statistics. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Lauritzen, S.L., Thiesson, B., Spiegelhalter, D.J. (1994). Diagnostic systems by model selection: a case study. In: Cheeseman, P., Oldford, R.W. (eds) Selecting Models from Data. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol 89. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2660-4_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2660-4_15
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-94281-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-2660-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive