Abstract
A hybrid neuro-symbolic problem solving model is presented in which the aim is to forecast parameters of a complex and dynamic environment in an unsupervised way. In situations in which the rules that determine a system are unknown, the prediction of the parameter values that determine the characteristic behaviour of the system can be a problematic task. The proposed system employs a case-based reasoning model that incorporates a growing cell structures network, a radial basis function network and a set of Sugeno fuzzy models to provide an accurate prediction. Each of these techniques is used in a different stage of the reasoning cycle of the case-based reasoning system to retrieve, to adapt and to review the proposed solution to the problem. This system has been used to predict the red tides that appear in the coastal waters of the north west of the Iberian Peninsula. The results obtained from those experiments are presented.
This research was supported in part by PGIDT00MAR30104PR project of Xunta de Galicia, Spain
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Nakhaeizadeh, G.: Learning prediction of time series. A theoretical and empirical comparison of CBR with some other approaches. In Proceedings of First European Workshop on Case-Based Reasoning, EWCBR-93. Kaiserslautern, Germany.(1993) 65–76
Lendaris, G. G., and Fraser, A. M.: Visual Fitting and Extrapolation. In Weigend, A. S., and Fershenfield, N. A. (Eds.). Time Series Prediction, Forecasting the Future and Understanding the Past. Addison Wesley. (1994) 35–46
Faltings, B.: Probabilistic Indexing for Case-Based Prediction. In Proceedings of Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development, Second International Conference, ICCBR-97. Provindence, Rhode Island, USA. (1997) 611–622
Lekkas, G. P., Arouris, N. M., Viras, L. L.: Case-Based Reasoning in Environmental Monitoring Applications. Artificial Intelligence, 8, (1994) 349–376
Mcintyre, H. S., Achabal, D. D., Miller, C. M.: Applying Case-Based Reasoning to Forecasting Retail Sales. Journal of Retailing, 69, num. 4, (1993) 372–398
Stottler, R. H.: Case-Based Reasoning for Cost and Sales Prediction. AI Expert, (1994) 25–33
Weber-Lee, R., Barcia, R. M., and Khator, S. K.: Case-based reasoning for cash flow forecasting using fuzzy retrieval. In Proceedings of the First International Conference, ICCBR-95. Sesimbra, Portugal, (1995) 510–519
Fyfe C., and Corchado J. M.: Automating the construction of CBR Systems using Kernel Methods. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 16, num. 4, (2001) 571–586
Corchado, J. M., and Lees, B.: Adaptation of Cases for Case-based Forecasting with Neural Network Support. In Pal, S. K., Dilon, T. S., and Yeung, D. S. (Eds.). Soft Computing in Case Based Reasoning. London: Springer Verlag, (2000) 293–319
Pal, S. K., Dilon, T. S., and Yeung, D. S.: Soft Computing in Case Based Reasoning. Springer Verlag: London, (2001)
Corchado, J. M., Lees, B.: A Hybrid Case-based Model for Forecasting. Applied Artificial Intelligence, 15, num. 2, (2001) 105–127
Corchado, J. M., Lees, B., Aiken, J.: Hybrid Instance-based System for Predicting Ocean Temperatures. International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications, 1, num. 1, (2001) 35–52
Corchado, J. M., Aiken, J., Rees, N.: Artificial Intelligence Models for Oceanographic Forecasting. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, U.K., (2001)
Fritzke, B.: Growing Self-Organizing Networks-Why?. In Verleysen, M. (Ed.). European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, ESANN-96. Brussels, (1996) 61–72
Fritzke, B.: Fast learning with incremental RBF Networks. Neural Processing Letters, 1, num. 1, (1994) 2–5
Jin, Y., Seelen, W. von., and Sendhoff, B.: Extracting Interpretable Fuzzy Rules from RBF Neural Networks. Internal Report IRINI 00-02, Institut für Neuroinfor-matik, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany, (2000)
Fritzke, B.: Growing Cell Structures-A Self-organizing Network for Unsupervised and Supervised Learning. Technical Report, International Computer Science Institute. Berkeley, (1993)
Azuaje, F., Dubitzky, W., Black, N., and Adamson, K.: Discovering Relevance Knowledge in Data: A Growing Cell Structures Approach. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 30, (2000) 448–460
Takagi, T., Sugeno, M.: Fuzzy identification of systems and its applications to modeling and control. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 15, (1985) 116–132
Setnes, M., Babuska, R., Kaymak, U., and van Nauta, H. R.: Similarity measures in Fuzzy Rule Base Simplification. IEEE Transactions on systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 28, num. 3, (1998) 376–386
Tomczak, M., Godfrey, J. S.: Regional Oceanographic: An Introduction. Pergamon, New York, (1994)
Fernández, E.: Las Mareas Rojas en las Rías Gallegas. Technical Report, Department of Ecology and Animal Biology. University of Vigo, (1998)
Hallegraeff, G. M.: A review of harmful algal blooms and their apparent global increase. Phycologia, 32, (1993) 79–99
Kamykowski, D.: The simulation of a southern California red tide using characteristics of a simultaneously-measured internal wave field. Ecol. Model., 12, (1981) 253–265
Watanabe, M., Harashima, A.: Interaction between motile phytoplankton and Langmuir circulation. Ecol. Model., 31, (1986) 175–183
Franks, P. J. S., Anderson, D. M.: Toxic phytoplankton blooms in the southwestern Gulf of Maine: testing hypotheses of physical control using historical data. Marine Biology, 112, (1992) 165–174
Anderson, D. M.: Toxic algal blooms and red tides: a global perspective. In Okaichi, T., Anderson, D. M., and Nemoto, T. (Eds.). RedTides: Biology, Environmental Science and Toxicology. New York: Elsevier, (1989) 11–16
Corchado, J. M., Fyfe, C.: Unsupervised Neural Network for Temperature Forecasting. Artificial Intelligence in Engineering, 13, num. 4, (1999) 351–357
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Fdez-Riverola, F., Corchado, J.M., Torres, J.M. (2002). An Automated Hybrid CBR System for Forecasting. In: Craw, S., Preece, A. (eds) Advances in Case-Based Reasoning. ECCBR 2002. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2416. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-46119-1_38
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-46119-1_38
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-44109-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-46119-7
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive