Threat Assessment Technology Development

Abstract

A concept for performing threat analysis is developed. The goal is to establish a systematic approach for predicting, detecting and characterizing threat activity; allowing automation of some of these functions. The proposed approach explicitly addresses the fundamental problems of (a) sparse and ambiguous indicators of potential or actualized threat activity buried in massive background data; and (b) uncertainty in threat capabilities, intent and opportunities. Threats are modeled in terms of potential and actualized relationships between perpetrators (threatening entities) and targets (threatened entities). Threats may be intentional or unintentional (e.g. potential natural disasters or human error). Intentional threats can also have unintended consequences. Attack hypotheses are adaptively generated, evaluated and refined as the understanding of the situation evolves. This effort builds upon advances in Situation, Ontology and Estimation theory.