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Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes

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Abstract

This study investigates the consequences of out-migration and migrant remittances for smallholder agriculture in a rural and environmentally marginal study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Migration and remittances have the potential for transformative impacts on agriculture in origin areas of migration due to consequent declines in labor availability and increases in income, but previous studies have primarily found mixed and weak effects. This study provides additional insight by considering the gender and destination of migrants, key factors given gender norms influencing participation in agriculture, and the large gap in remittances sent by internal and international migrants. Building on recent methodological innovations, the study uses original household survey data and multivariate statistical models to examine the consequences of migration and remittances for multiple agricultural outcomes, including maize production, agrodiversity, female participation in agriculture, and the use of land, labor, and chemical inputs. Consistent with previous studies, the results indicate that migration and remittances have mixed and countervailing effects on smallholder agriculture. Specifically, out-migration has lost-labor effects that differ between men and women, and international remittances have investment-promotion effects that result in increased maize production. Together, the results highlight the resilience of smallholder agriculture in the face of dramatic demographic change.

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Notes

  1. The study area includes the cantons (roughly equivalent to US counties) of Calvas, Gonzanama, Espindola, Quilanga, and Sozoranga of Loja province.

  2. These values were derived the household survey data, described below, and excludes parcels not owned or managed by residents of the community.

  3. The questionnaire is available online at http://dc.lib.unc.edu/u?/etd,1671.

  4. Only 6% of adults participated in temporary labor migration in 2005 according to the household survey. Additionally, agricultural activities and temporary migration are likely part of a joint decision-making process, and thus temporary migration is likely endogenous to the outcomes described below. This is a less of a concern for long-term out-migration, which on average occurred approximately 5 years prior to the survey and was thus unlikely to be part of a joint decision-making process with agricultural activities in the year of the survey.

  5. Missing data on the outcomes leads to smaller sample sizes in some cases. Additionally, to account for missing data for the predictors, 0.3% of predictor values were manually imputed based on other information in the questionnaire.

  6. One tarea, a local unit of area, is equal to 0.05 hectares.

  7. A quintal is unit of mass equal to 100 pounds or 45.4 kg.

  8. Improved varieties, which were planted by few households, were excluded from this measure.

  9. Parallel analyses conducted with ordinary least squares indicate that collinearity among the predictors is low and non-problematic.

  10. I also explored categorizing migrants by destination rather than gender as well as categorizing remittances by migrant gender rather than destination. The specification described provided the best fit.

  11. These household-level values differ from Table 3 due to the departure from many households of multiple migrants to the same destination type.

  12. Alternative models for censored outcomes include two-part models in which the dichotomous decision to participate and the continuous level of participation are modeled separately (Smith and Brame 2003), e.g., a logit model of participation followed by linear regression on the positive values. I instead elected to use the Tobit model for the following reasons: (1) the small number of censored or positive values for some outcomes, (2) an interest in overall effects on participation and the extent of participation, and (3) parsimony, given the large number of models. A comparison of the results reveals that the direction and significance of effects are largely consistent across the two approaches.

  13. Marginal effects were calculated using Stata’s mfx command for effects on the outcome conditional on the outcome being greater than zero.

  14. This model was selected over the negative binomial model because the additional parameter in negative binomial models was consistently non-significant.

  15. This value was calculated by multiplying the natural logarithm of the mean value of remittances per male international migrant ($552, including non-remitters) by the marginal effect of international remittances on maize production (Table 5), and adding to it the marginal effect from the departure of one male migrant (Table 5).

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this research was provided by a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) and a Research Residency grant from the Carolina Population Center (CPC). The author was supported as a doctoral student by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship and by an NSF grant to the CPC for graduate training in population-environment research. I thank Richard Bilsborrow and Thomas Whitmore for providing advice throughout the project and also members of my dissertation committee and the anonymous reviewers for their comments. For making the fieldwork possible I am indebted to the participating communities, the field staff, and the Center for Population and Social Development Studies in Quito.

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Gray, C.L. Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Popul Environ 30, 193–217 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-009-0081-5

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