Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat

  • Published:
European Journal of Plant Pathology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Disease–weather relationships influencing Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) preceding growth stage (GS) 31 were identified using data from 12 sites in the UK covering 8 years. Based on these relationships, an early-warning predictive model for SLB on winter wheat was formulated to predict the occurrence of a damaging epidemic (defined as disease severity of 5% or > 5% on the top three leaf layers). The final model was based on accumulated rain > 3 mm in the 80-day period preceding GS 31 (roughly from early-February to the end of April) and accumulated minimum temperature with a 0°C base in the 50-day period starting from 120 days preceding GS 31 (approximately January and February). The model was validated on an independent data set on which the prediction accuracy was influenced by cultivar resistance. Over all observations, the model had a true positive proportion of 0.61, a true negative proportion of 0.73, a sensitivity of 0.83, and a specificity of 0.18. True negative proportion increased to 0.85 for resistant cultivars and decreased to 0.50 for susceptible cultivars. Potential fungicide savings are most likely to be made with resistant cultivars, but such benefits would need to be identified with an in-depth evaluation.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anonymous. (1994–2005). Cereal variety handbook : NIAB recommended list of cereals.

  • Chartrain, L., Joaquim, P., Berry, S. T., Arraiano, L. S., Azanza, F., & Brown, J. K. M. (2005). Genetics of resistance to Septoria tritici blotch in the Portuguese wheat breeding line TE 9111. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 110, 1138–1144.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Chuang, T. Y., & Jeger, M. J. (1987). Predicting the rate of development of black sigatoka (Mycosphaerella fijiensis var. difformis) disease in southern Taiwan. Phytopathology, 77, 1542–1547.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chungu, C., Gilbert, J., & Townley-Smith, F. (2001). Septoria tritici blotch development as affected by temperature, duration of leaf wetness, inoculum concentration, and host. Plant Disease, 85, 430–435.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coakley, S. M., & Line, R. F. (1982). Prediction of stripe rust epidemics on winter wheat using statistical models. Phytopathology, 72, 1006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coakley, S. M., Line, R. F., & McDaniel, L. R. (1988). Predicting stripe rust severity on winter wheat using an improved method for analyzing meteorological and rust data. Phytopathology, 78, 543–550.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coakley, S. M., McDaniel, L. R., & Shaner, G. (1985). Model for predicting severity of Septoria tritici blotch on winter wheat. Phytopathology, 75, 1245–1251.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crowe, M. J., Coakley, S. M., & Emge, R. G. (1978). Forecasting dew duration at Pendleton, Oregon, using simple weather observations. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 17, 1482–1487.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daamen, R. A., & Stol, W. (1992). Surveys of cereal diseases and pests in the Netherlands .5. Occurrence of Septoria spp. in winter wheat. Netherlands Journal of Plant Pathology, 98, 369–376.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Djurle, A., Ekbom, B., & Yuen, J. E. (1996). The relationship of leaf wetness duration and disease progress of glume blotch, caused by Stagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat to standard weather data. European Journal of Plant Pathology, 102, 9–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frahm, J., & Volk, T. (1993). Pro_Plant—a computer-based decision-support systems for cereal disease control. EPPO Bulletin, 23, 685–693.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gladders, P., Paveley, N. D., Barrie, I. A., Hardwick, N. V., Hims, M. J., Langton, S., & Taylor, M. C. (2001). Agronomic and meteorological factors affecting the severity of leaf blotch caused by Mycosphaerella graminicola in commercial wheat crops in England. Annals of Applied Biology, 138, 301–311.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen, J. G., Secher, B. J. M., Jorgensen, L. N., & Welling, B. (1994). Thresholds for control of Septoria spp. in winter wheat based on precipitation and growth stage. Plant Pathology, 43, 183–189.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hardwick, N. V., Jones, D. R., & Slough, J. E. (2001). Factors affecting diseases of winter wheat in England and Wales, 1989–98. Plant Pathology, 50, 453–462.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hughes, G., McRoberts, N., & Burnett, F. J. (1999). Decision making and diagnosis in disease management. Plant Pathology, 48, 147–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jorgensen, L. N., Secher, B. J. M., & Nielsen, G. C. (1996). Monitoring diseases of winter wheat on both a field and a national level in Denmark. Crop Protection, 15, 383–390.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • King, J. E., Cook, R. J., & Melville, S. C. (1983). A review of Septoria diseases of wheat and barley. Annals of Applied Biology, 103, 345–373.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovell, D. J., Hunter, T., Powers, S. J., Parker, S. R., & Van den Bosch, F. (2004a). Effect of temperature on latent period of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat under outdoor conditions. Plant Pathology, 53, 170–181.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovell, D. J., Parker, S. R., Hunter, T., Welham, S. J., & Nichols, A. R. (2004b). Position of inoculum in the canopy affects the risk of Septoria tritici blotch epidemics in winter wheat. Plant Pathology, 53, 11–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lovell, D. J., Parker, S. R., Paveley, N. D., & Worland, A. J. (2002). Understanding field resistance mechanisms for improved control of Septoria tritici. Plant Protection Science, 38, 165–169.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mardia, K. V., Kent, J. T., & Bibby, J. M. (1979). Multivariate analysis. London: Academic.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milne, A., Paveley, N., Audsley, E., & Livermore, P. (2003). A wheat canopy model for use in disease management decision support systems. Annals of Applied Biology, 143, 265–274.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Papastamati, K., McCartney, H. A., & van den Bosch, F. (2004). Modelling leaf wetness duration during the rosette stage of oilseed rape. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 123, 69–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parker, S. R., Lovell, D. J., Royle, D. J., & Paveley, N. D. (1999). Analysing epidemics of Septoria tritici for improved estimates of disease risk. In J. A. Lucas, P. Bowyer, & H. M. Anderson (Eds.), Septoria on Cereals: A Study of Pathosystems (pp. 96–107). Oxford: CAB International.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parker, S. R., Welham, S., Paveley, N. D., Foulkes, J., & Scott, R. K. (2004). Tolerance of Septoria leaf blotch in winter wheat. Plant Pathology, 53, 1–10.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parsons, D. J., & te Beest, D. E. (2004). Optimising fungicide applications on winter wheat using genetic algorithms. Biosystems Engineering, 88, 401–410.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pietravalle, S., Shaw, M. W., Parker, S. R., & van den Bosch, F. (2003). Modeling of relationships between weather and Septoria tritici epidemics on winter wheat: A critical approach. Phytopathology, 93, 1329–1339.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Royle, D. J., & Shaw, M. W. (1988). The costs and benefits of disease forecasting in relation to its adoption in farming practice. In B. C. Clifford, & E. Lester (Eds.), Control of plant disease: costs and benefits (pp. 231–246). Oxford: Blackwell.

    Google Scholar 

  • Seck, M., Roelfs, A. P., & Teng, P. S. (1991). Influence of leaf position on yield loss caused by wheat leaf rust in single tillers. Crop Protection, 10, 222–228.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Segarra, J., Jeger, M. J., & van den Bosch, F. (2001). Epidemic dynamics and patterns of plant diseases. Phytopathology, 91, 1001–1010.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, M. W. (1990). Effects of temperature, leaf wetness and cultivar on the latent period of Mycosphaerella graminicola on winter wheat. Plant Pathology, 39, 255–268.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, M. W., Bearchell, S. J., Fitt, B. D. L., & Fraaije, B. A. (2008). Long-term relationships between enviroment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola. New Phytologist, 177, 229–238.

    PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, M. W., & Royle, D. J. (1993). Factors determining the severity of epidemics of Mycosphaerella graminicola (Septoria tritici) on winter wheat in the UK. Plant Pathology, 42, 882–899.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • te Beest, D. E., Paveley, N. D., Shaw, M. W., & van den Bosch, F. (2008). Disease–weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat. Phytopathology, 98, 609–617.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas, M. R., Cook, R. J., & King, J. E. (1989). Factors affecting development of Septoria tritici in winter wheat and its effect on yield. Plant Pathology, 38, 246–257.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyldesley, J. B., & Thompson, N. (1980). Forecasting Septoria nodorum on winter wheat in England and Wales. Plant Pathology, 29, 9–20.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This project has been funded by The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), UK. Rothamsted Research receives support from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). Weather data used are Crown Copyright supplied by the UK Meteorological Office.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biomathematics and Bioinformatics division, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2 JQ, UK

    D. E. te Beest & F. van den Bosch

  2. University of Reading, School of Biological Sciences, Reading, RG6 6AS, UK

    M. W. Shaw

  3. Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, YO41 1LZ, UK

    S. Pietravalle

Authors
  1. D. E. te Beest
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. W. Shaw
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. S. Pietravalle
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. F. van den Bosch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to D. E. te Beest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

te Beest, D.E., Shaw, M.W., Pietravalle, S. et al. A predictive model for early-warning of Septoria leaf blotch on winter wheat. Eur J Plant Pathol 124, 413–425 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-009-9428-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10658-009-9428-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation