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Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options

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Abstract

The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5–10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20–40 Gt additional \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions.

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Notes

  1. The Doha Development Round is the latest round of trade negotiations of the World Trade Organisation (WTO). It was launched in 2011 with the aim of improving the access to global markets. For more information on the stage and agenda of the Doha Round, see Martin and Mattoo (2011).

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Acknowledgments

We thank our colleagues in the land-use research group of PIK for many valuable discussions. We gratefully acknowledge financial support by the German BMBF projects “Hydrothermal carbonisation of biomass” and “GLUES Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services” and the EU FP7 project “Visions of Land Use Transitions in Europe (VOLANTE)”. Finally, we thank Alison Schlums for proofreading. The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities (RD2), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

    Christoph Schmitz, Hermann Lotze-Campen & Christoph Müller

  2. Sustainable Solutions (RD3), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

    Ulrich Kreidenweis, Alexander Popp & Jan P. Dietrich

  3. Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitt zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Hermann Lotze-Campen

  4. Österreichische Bundesforste (OeBf), Austrian Federal Forest Joint Stock Company, Purkersdorf, Austria

    Michael Krause

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  1. Christoph Schmitz
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Schmitz, C., Kreidenweis, U., Lotze-Campen, H. et al. Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options. Reg Environ Change 15, 1757–1772 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0700-2

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