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Discriminant analysis for estimation of groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well construction: application to New Zealand aquifers

Analyse discriminante pour l’estimation de l’âge des eaux souterraines à l’aide de l’hydrogéochimie et caractéristiques des forages : Application aux aquifères de Nouvelle Zélande

Análisis discriminante para la estimación de la edad del agua subterránea a partir de la hidroquímica y de la construcción de pozos: Aplicación a acuíferos de Nueva Zelanda

基于水化学和井深估算地下水年龄的判别分析 : 应用于新西兰含水层

Análise discriminante para estimação da idade da água subterrânea a partir de dados hidroquímicos e de construção de furos: Aplicação a aquíferos da Nova Zelândia

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An Erratum to this article was published on 19 November 2009

An Erratum to this article was published on 19 November 2009

Abstract

Concentrations of tritium, chlorofluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride have been measured at over 100 groundwater monitoring sites across New Zealand, followed by interpretation of groundwater age distribution using the exponential-piston flow model. Interpreted mean residence times ranged from less than 1 year to more than 100 years, with the 25th, 50th (median) and 75th percentiles being approximately 10, 40 and 100 years, respectively. Classification functions derived from discriminant analysis and based on nine input variables (well depth, electrical conductivity and the concentrations of the ions Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO3, Cl and SO4) allowed assignment of 71% of the sites to the correct of four age categories (mean residence time 10 years or less, 11–40 years, 41–100 years, or more than 100 years). The discriminant analysis classification functions were more effective than regression methods for estimating groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well depth, and can thus be used to predict the groundwater age category for any monitoring site in New Zealand.

Résumé

Les concentrations en tritium, chlorofluorocarbones et hexafluorure de soufre de plus de 100 sites de suivi des eaux souterraines de Nouvelle Zélande ont été déterminées et interprétées pour l’estimation de la distribution des âges en utilisant un modèle combiné piston et exponentiel. Les temps moyens de résidence calculés vont de un à plus de 100 ans, avec les centiles 25, 50 (médiane) et 75 environ de 10, 40 et 100 ans respectivement. Les fonctions de classifications dérivées de l’analyse discriminante et basées sur neuf variables d’entrées (profondeur des forages, conductivité électrique, concentrations en Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO3, Cl et SO4) permettent d’assigner correctement 71% des sites dans quatre catégories d’âge (temps moyen de résidence 10 ans ou moins, 11 à 40 ans, 41 à 100 ans et plus de 100 ans). Les fonctions de classification de l’analyse discriminante sont plus efficaces que les méthodes de régression pour l’estimation des âges des eaux souterraines à partir des données chimiques et profondeurs des forages et peuvent donc être utilisées pour prédire les catégories d’âge des eaux souterraines des sites de suivi en Nouvelle-Zélande.

Resumen

Se midieron concentraciones de tritio, clorofluorcarbonos y hexafluoruro de azufre en más de 100 sitios de monitoreo de aguas subterráneas en Nueva Zelanda, seguido de la interpretación de la distribución de la edad del agua subterránea usando el modelo de flujo exponencial – pistón. Los tiempos medios de residencia interpretados variaron de menos de un año a más de 100 años, siendo los percentiles 25, 50 (mediana) y 75 de aproximadamente 10, 40 y 100 años, respectivamente. Las funciones de clasificación desarrolladas a partir del análisis discriminante y basadas en nueve variables de entrada (profundidad del pozo, conductividad eléctrica y las concentraciones de los iones Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO3, Cl y SO4) permitieron encasillar el 71% de los sitios para cuatro categoría de edades correctas (tiempo medio de residencia de diez años o menos, 11 a 40 años, 41 a 100 años, o más que 100 años). Las funciones de clasificación del análisis discriminante fueron más efectivas que los métodos de regresión para estimar la edad del agua subterránea a partir de la hidroquímica y de la profundidad del pozo, y puede así ser usada para predecir la categoría de edad del agua subterránea para cualquier sitio de monitoreo en Nueva Zelanda.

摘要

在遍布新西兰的100多口监测井中测定3H、CFCs和SF6的含量, 进而利用指数-活塞流模型对地下水年龄分布进行解释。结果显示, 地下水平均滞留时间从小于一年到大于100多年均有分布, 小于10、40、100年的样品数量分别占全部样品数量的25%、50%、75%。从判别分析引伸来的分类函数基于九个输入变量 (井深、电导率、Na、 K、Ca、Mg、HCO3、Cl 和 SO4的含量), 对该区域的71%的样品分配到这四个年龄段 (平均滞留年龄小于10年、11到40年、41到100年、100年以上) 。基于水化学和井深两因子估算地下水年龄时, 判别分析分类函数比回归方法更有效, 所以能用来预测新西兰各监测区地下水的年龄段。

Resumo

Concentrações de trítio, clorofluorcarbonetos e hexafluoreto de enxofre têm sido medidos em mais de 100 locais de monitorização de água subterrânea na Nova Zelândia, a que se seguiu uma interpretação da distribuição da idade da água subterrânea usando o modelo de fluxo exponencial de pistão. Os tempos de residência média interpretados variaram desde menos de um ano até mais de 100 anos, com os percentis de 25, 50 (mediana) e 75 aproximadamente de 10, 40 e 100 anos, respectivamente. As funções de classificação derivadas de análises discriminantes e baseadas em nove variáveis imputadas (profundidade dos furos, condutividade eléctrica e a concentração dos iões Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO3, Cl e SO4) permitiram a atribuição de 71% dos locais à categoria correcta dentro de quatro intervalos de idade (tempo médio de residência de 10 anos ou menos, 11 a 40 anos, 41 a 100 anos, ou mais de 100 anos). As funções de classificação de análises discriminantes foram mais efectivas que os métodos de regressão para estimar a idade da água subterrânea a partir de dados hidroquímicos e da profundidade dos furos, e pode então ser usada para predizer o intervalo de idade para qualquer furo de monitorização na Nova Zelândia.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank personnel from New Zealand regional councils for assistance with sample collection. This manuscript was greatly improved by the insightful comments of Managing Editor Maria-Theresia Schafmeister, Associate Editor Werner Aeschbach-Hertig and three anonymous reviewers. Dr. Michael Stewart (GNS Science) is thanked for reviewing an early version of this manuscript. This research was funded by the New Zealand Foundation for Research, Science and Technology (Contract C05X0706).

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  1. Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, P.O. Box 30368, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

    Christopher J. Daughney, Uwe Morgenstern, Rob van der Raaij & Robert R. Reeves

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  1. Christopher J. Daughney
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Correspondence to Christopher J. Daughney.

Additional information

An erratum to this article can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10040-009-0546-8

Electronic Supplementary Material

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ESM 1

National Groundwater Monitoring Programme site details, interpreted ages and discriminant analysis age category predictions (PDF 23 kb)

ESM 2

National Groundwater Monitoring Programme site hydrochemistry (PDF 23 kb)

ESM 3

Concentrations of tritium (in Tritium Units, TU), chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11 and CFC-12 in parts per trillion, ppt) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6 in ppt) at National Groundwater Monitoring Programme sites (PDF 35 kb)

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Daughney, C.J., Morgenstern, U., van der Raaij, R. et al. Discriminant analysis for estimation of groundwater age from hydrochemistry and well construction: application to New Zealand aquifers. Hydrogeol J 18, 417–428 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-009-0479-2

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