Abstract
Groundwater resource estimates require the calculation of recharge using a daily time step. Within climate-change impact studies, this inevitably necessitates temporal downscaling of global or regional climate model outputs. This paper compares future estimates of potential groundwater recharge calculated using a daily soil-water balance model and climate-change weather time series derived using change factor (deterministic) and weather generator (stochastic) methods for Coltishall, UK. The uncertainty in the results for a given climate-change scenario arising from the choice of downscaling method is greater than the uncertainty due to the emissions scenario within a 30-year time slice. Robust estimates of the impact of climate change on groundwater resources require stochastic modelling of potential recharge, but this has implications for groundwater model runtimes. It is recommended that stochastic modelling of potential recharge is used in vulnerable or sensitive groundwater systems, and that the multiple recharge time series are sampled according to the distribution of contextually important time series variables, e.g. recharge drought severity and persistence (for water resource management) or high recharge years (for groundwater flooding). Such an approach will underpin an improved understanding of climate change impacts on sustainable groundwater resource management based on adaptive management and risk-based frameworks.
Résumé
L'estimation des ressources en eau souterraine nécessite le calcul de la réalimentation quotidienne. Dans le cadre des études d'impact du changement climatique, ceci requiert la désagrégation spatiale des résultats des modèles climatiques globaux ou régionaux. Le présent article compare les estimations futures de la réalimentation potentielle des eaux souterraines calculées à partir d'un modèle de bilan en eau quotidien dans les sols et de la série chronologique des changements climatiques, dérivée de méthodes utilisant soit un facteur de changement (déterministe), soit un générateur météorologique (stochastique) sur Coltishall, au Royaume-Uni. L'incertitude sur les résultats pour un scenario de modification climatique donné sera supérieure dans le cas de la méthode de désagrégation à celle issue des scenarii d'émissions sur un intervalle de 30 ans. Une estimation solide des impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau souterraine nécessite une modélisation stochastique de la réalimentation potentielle, mais ceci a des conséquences sur les moteurs d'exécution des modèles. Il est recommandé d'utiliser la modélisation stochastique de la réalimentation potentielle sur des systèmes aquifères vulnérables ou sensibles, et d'échantillonner les séries temporelles de réalimentation de manière concordante avec la distribution des variables importantes dans le contexte fixé, comme la sévérité et la persistance des déficits de réalimentation (pour la gestion des ressources en eau) ou les années de forte réalimentation (pour les inondations). Une telle approche servira de base à une meilleure compréhension des impacts du changement climatique sur la gestion durable des ressources en eau souterraine, basée sur une gestion adaptative et sur un cadre fixé par les risques.
Resumen
La estimación de los recursos subterráneos requiere el cálculo de la recarga usando un paso de tiempo diario. Dentro de los estudios de impacto de cambio climático, esto inevitablemente necesita de salidas de reducción de escala temporal de modelos de clima global o regional. Este trabajo compara estimaciones futuras de la recarga potencial de agua subterráneas calculada usando un modelo de balance de agua diario en el suelo y una serie meteorológica temporal de cambio climático desarrollada usando un método de factor de cambio (determinístico) y un método generador meteorológico (estocástico) para Coltishall (Gran Bretaña) . La incerteza en los resultados para un escenario dado de cambio climático proveniente de la elección del método de reducción de escala es mayor que la incerteza debido al escenario de emisiones dentro de una porción de tiempo de 30 años. Las estimaciones robustas del impacto del cambio climático en los recursos de aguas subterráneas requieren la modelación estocástica de la recarga potencial, pero esto tiene implicaciones para los tiempos de ejecución de los modelos de aguas subterráneas. Se recomienda que el modelado estocástico de la recarga potencial sea usado en sistemas de aguas subterráneas vulnerables o sensibles, y que las series de tiempo de recarga múltiple sean muestreadas de acuerdo a la distribución de series temporales variables contextualmente importantes, p. ej. la recarga afectada por la severidad y la persistencia de sequías (para la gestión del recurso agua) o años de alta recarga (para anegamientos de aguas subterráneas). Tal enfoque apuntala un mejor entendimiento de los impactos del cambio climático en la gestión sustentable del recurso de las aguas subterráneas, basado en un esquema adaptable de gestión y riesgos.
摘要
摘要 地下水资源估算需要利用逐日步长计算的补给量。在气候变化影响研究中, 这使全球或区域气候模型输出在时间上的降尺度处理成为必要。本文对比了利用日土壤水分平衡模型和根据变化因子 (确定的) 和天气发生器 (随机的) 方法确定的气候变化天气时间序列计算出的未来英国科提肖地区潜在地下水补给估算。起于降尺度方法选择的在给定气候变化情景下的结果不确定性较大, 归因于一个30年的时间片段内排放情景。气候变化对地下水资源的影响的稳健估计需要对潜在补给进行随机模拟, 但这包括地下水模型的运行时间。建议将潜在补给的随机模拟用于脆弱或敏感的地下水系统, 各补给时间序列依据前后重要时间序列的变化如干旱季节补给的缺乏和持续时间 (与水资源管理有关) 或高补给年 (如地下洪水) 等进行取样。这一方法将继续加深对基于适应性管理和基于风险框架的气候变化对可持续地下水资源管理影响的理解。
Resumo
As estimativas de recursos hídricos subterrâneos requerem o cálculo da recarga utilizando um intervalo de tempo diário. Em estudos de impacte das alterações climáticas tal implica inevitavelmente a regionalização (downscaling) temporal dos resultados de modelos climáticos globais ou regionais. Este artigo compara estimativas futuras de recarga potencial de águas subterrâneas, utilizando um modelo de balanço hídrico diário do solo e séries temporais meteorológicas de alterações climáticas derivadas dos métodos factor de alteração (determinístico) e gerador climático (estocástico), para Coltishall, Reino Unido. A incerteza nos resultados para um determinado cenário de alterações climáticas, decorrente da escolha do método de regionalização, é maior do que a incerteza devida ao cenário de emissões para um intervalo de tempo de 30 anos. Estimativas robustas do impacte das alterações climáticas nos recursos hídricos subterrâneos exigem a modelação estocástica da recarga potencial, havendo contudo implicações para os tempos de execução dos modelos de águas subterrâneas. Recomenda-se a utilização da modelação estocástica da recarga potencial em sistemas de águas subterrâneas vulneráveis ou sensíveis, e a obtenção de séries temporais múltiplas de recarga de acordo com a distribuição de variáveis importantes em termos contextuais, tais como a severidade e persistência de uma seca (para a gestão dos recursos hídricos), ou anos de recarga elevada (para inundações provocadas pelas águas subterrâneas). Este tipo de abordagem irá contribuir para uma melhor compreensão dos impactes das alterações climáticas na gestão sustentável dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos, com base em quadros de risco e gestão adaptativa.
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Acknowledgements
The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council-funded BETWIXT (Built EnvironmenT: Weather scenarios for investigation of Impacts and eXTremes) project and Clare Goodess (BETWIXT co-ordinator) are gratefully acknowledged for the provision of the daily time-series data. The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is acknowledged for use of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, and Dr Juan Rodríguez Díaz and Dr Jerry Knox (Cranfield University) for the change factors. We thank the reviewers for their constructive comments.
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Holman, I.P., Tascone, D. & Hess, T.M. A comparison of stochastic and deterministic downscaling methods for modelling potential groundwater recharge under climate change in East Anglia, UK: implications for groundwater resource management. Hydrogeol J 17, 1629–1641 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-009-0457-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-009-0457-8