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Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA

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Abstract

We evaluated spring phenology changes from 1965 to 2001 in northeastern USA utilizing a unique data set from 72 locations with genetically identical lilac plants (Syringa chinensis, clone “Red Rothomagensis”). We also utilized a previously validated lilac-honeysuckle “spring index” model to reconstruct a more complete record of first leaf date (FLD) and first flower date (FFD) for the region from historical weather data. In addition, we examined mid-bloom dates for apple (Malus domestica) and grape (Vitis vinifera) collected at several sites in the region during approximately the same time period. Almost all lilac sites with significant linear trends for FLD or FFD versus year had negative slopes (advanced development). Regression analysis of pooled data for the 72 sites indicated an advance of −0.092 day/year for FFD (P=0.003). The slope for FLD was also negative (−0.048 day/year), but not significant (P=0.234). The simulated data from the “spring index” model, which relies on local daily temperature records, indicated highly significant (P<0.001) negative slopes of −0.210 and −0.123 day/year for FLD and FFD, respectively. Data collected for apple and grape also indicated advance spring development, with slopes for mid-bloom date versus year of −0.20 day/year (P=0.01) and −0.146 (P=0.14), respectively. Collectively, these results indicate an advance in spring phenology ranging from 2 to 8 days for these woody perennials in northeastern USA for the period 1965 to 2001, qualitatively consistent with a warming trend, and consistent with phenology shifts reported for other mid- and high-latitude regions.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded in part by a grant from the USDA Special Grants-Agriculture Ecosystems Program (No. 91-34244-7419). Historical lilac phenology data collection was funded by USDA NE-35 and NE-69 Regional Hatch grants. The authors thank Keith Eggleston of the Northeast Regional Climate Center for help in accessing weather records, and Jeff Piestrak of Mann Library at Cornell University for assistance with GIS mapping. We thank Cornell University Agriculture Experiment Station faculty and staff who participated in the collection of apple and grape phenology data, and volunteers throughout northeastern USA who have participated in the lilac phenology network

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Horticulture, 168 Plant Science Bldg., Cornell University, Tower Road, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA

    David W. Wolfe

  2. Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box 413, Milwaukee, 53201, WI, USA

    Mark D. Schwartz

  3. Horticultural Sciences Department, Geneva Experiment Station, Cornell University, Geneva, 14456, NY, USA

    Alan N. Lakso, Robert M. Pool & Nelson J. Shaulis

  4. Department of Horticulture, Cornell University, Ithaca, 14853, NY, USA

    Yuka Otsuki

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  1. David W. Wolfe
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  2. Mark D. Schwartz
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  3. Alan N. Lakso
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  4. Yuka Otsuki
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  5. Robert M. Pool
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  6. Nelson J. Shaulis
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Correspondence to David W. Wolfe.

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Wolfe, D.W., Schwartz, M.D., Lakso, A.N. et al. Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA. Int J Biometeorol 49, 303–309 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-004-0248-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-004-0248-9

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