Abstract
In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.
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Acknowledgments
This study was supported by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile as part of the Progetto INGV-DPC V5 SPEED (2007–2009). Scenari di scuotimento in aree di interesse prioritario e/o strategico TASK 1. PERICOLOSITÀ CONNESSA A TERREMOTI PRE E SIN ERUTTIVI: Valutazione dell’Hazard sismico nelle aree vulcaniche Vesuvio e Campi Flegrei. The development of a method for time-dependent seismic hazard due to natural seismicity has been partly supported by the FP7 EU research project Geiser-Geothermal Engineering Integrating Mitigation of induced seismicity in reservoirs. The authors wish to thank Prof. Edoardo Del Pezzo, an anonymous reviewer, and the associate editor Dr. Maurizio Ripepe, whose helpful comments greatly improved the clarity and quality of the manuscript. The Figures were prepared with Generic Mapping Tools (Wessel and Smith 1991).
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Convertito, V., Zollo, A. Assessment of pre-crisis and syn-crisis seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes, Campania, southern Italy. Bull Volcanol 73, 767–783 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0455-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0455-2