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Estimating global arthropod species richness: refining probabilistic models using probability bounds analysis

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Abstract

A key challenge in the estimation of tropical arthropod species richness is the appropriate management of the large uncertainties associated with any model. Such uncertainties had largely been ignored until recently, when we attempted to account for uncertainty associated with model variables, using Monte Carlo analysis. This model is restricted by various assumptions. Here, we use a technique known as probability bounds analysis to assess the influence of assumptions about (1) distributional form and (2) dependencies between variables, and to construct probability bounds around the original model prediction distribution. The original Monte Carlo model yielded a median estimate of 6.1 million species, with a 90 % confidence interval of [3.6, 11.4]. Here we found that the probability bounds (p-bounds) surrounding this cumulative distribution were very broad, owing to uncertainties in distributional form and dependencies between variables. Replacing the implicit assumption of pure statistical independence between variables in the model with no dependency assumptions resulted in lower and upper p-bounds at 0.5 cumulative probability (i.e., at the median estimate) of 2.9–12.7 million. From here, replacing probability distributions with probability boxes, which represent classes of distributions, led to even wider bounds (2.4–20.0 million at 0.5 cumulative probability). Even the 100th percentile of the uppermost bound produced (i.e., the absolutely most conservative scenario) did not encompass the well-known hyper-estimate of 30 million species of tropical arthropods. This supports the lower estimates made by several authors over the last two decades.

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Acknowledgments

Cindy Hauser provided useful technical comments on a draft of this manuscript. The host specificity studies in New Guinea, upon which this model draws substantially, were supported by the National Science Foundation (USA) (DEB-0841885), Christensen Fund (USA), Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (206/09/0115), Czech Academy of Sciences, the Swedish Natural Science Research Council, Czech Ministry of Education (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0064, LH11008), Otto Kinne Foundation, Darwin Initiative (UK) (19-008), International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE) and Bishop Museum. Parataxonomists in New Guinea are thanked for their assistance and are listed in Novotný et al. (2002). This paper is dedicated to the late Ken Hamilton, the consummate logician and giver.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, The University of Melbourne, Dookie Campus, 940 Dookie–Nalinga Road, Dookie College, VIC, 3647, Australia

    Andrew J. Hamilton & Peter S. Grimbacher

  2. Biology Centre, Czech Academy of Sciences, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic

    Vojtech Novotný

  3. Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, 370 05, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic

    Vojtech Novotný

  4. The University of Notre Dame Australia, PO Box 944, Broadway, NSW, 2007, Australia

    Edward K. Waters

  5. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Apartado, 0843-03092, Balboa, Ancón, Panama

    Yves Basset

  6. Department of Primary Industries, 32 Lincoln Square North, Carlton, Parkville Centre, Parkville, VIC, 3052, Australia

    Kurt K. Benke

  7. National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, 20013-7012, USA

    Scott E. Miller

  8. Bishop Museum, Honolulu, HI, USA

    G. Allan Samuelson

  9. Department of Plant Biology, University of Minnesota, 220 Biological Sciences Centre, 1445 Gortner Avenue, St Paul, MN, 55108-1095, USA

    George D. Weiblen

  10. School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia

    Jian D. L. Yen

  11. Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD, 4111, Australia

    Nigel E. Stork

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  1. Andrew J. Hamilton
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  2. Vojtech Novotný
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  3. Edward K. Waters
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  4. Yves Basset
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  5. Kurt K. Benke
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  6. Peter S. Grimbacher
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  7. Scott E. Miller
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  8. G. Allan Samuelson
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  9. George D. Weiblen
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  10. Jian D. L. Yen
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  11. Nigel E. Stork
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew J. Hamilton.

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Communicated by Andreas Prinzing.

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Hamilton, A.J., Novotný, V., Waters, E.K. et al. Estimating global arthropod species richness: refining probabilistic models using probability bounds analysis. Oecologia 171, 357–365 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-012-2434-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-012-2434-5

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