Abstract
Having considered social and historical factors and employed two applicable methods of selecting the baseline of linear trend of mortality, Yang Songlin estimates that the 1959–1961 famine toll is from 2.6 million to 4 million. This is a stunning conclusion in contrast to all the accepted conclusions from 17 to 50 million.
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Notes
- 1.
When identifying the province-specific data, some provinces for which the data were apparently anomalous, were excluded. For example, the over-60 population in Heilongjiang in 1964 was 65.7 per cent larger than that in 1953, which is difficult to explain. The data for Guangdong province had the same problem. Although the exclusion of this data does not necessarily benefit the argumentation of this book, we have discarded the illogical data. As a result, the calculation shows that the increase in the population figures is approximately in proportion to the decrease.
- 2.
Those who were 65 years old and above in 1964 were 60–62 years old during the years of difficulties.
- 3.
The population in year-end 1953 was 587.96 million. The number of people aged 65 and above was 25.03 million, or 42.6 per thousand. The population in year-end 1964 was 704.99 million, and the number of people aged 65 and above was 24.53 million, or 34.8 per thousand.
- 4.
The average yearly death toll was 6.76 million for 1962–1963. It will become 7.45 million and approximate to the death toll of 1964–1965, i.e. 7.53 million, if the death rate is increased by 10.2 per cent.
Reference
National Bureau of Statistics and Ministry of Public Security. (1988). The People’s Republic of China compendium of population statistics 1949–1985. China Financial and Economic Publishing House.
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Yang, S. (2021). There Were 2.6–4 Million Deaths in the Three Years of Difficulty in Excess of Normal Years. In: Telling the Truth: China’s Great Leap Forward, Household Registration and the Famine Death Tally. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1661-7_7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-1661-7_7
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