What the flux? Uncertain response of ocean biological carbon export in a
changing world
Abstract
The export flux of organic carbon from the upper ocean is the starting
point of the transfer and long term storage of photosynthetically-fixed
carbon in the deep ocean. This “biological carbon pump” is a
significant component of the global carbon cycle, reducing atmospheric
CO2 levels by ~ 50%. Carbon exported out of the upper
ocean also fuels the productivity of the mesopelagic zone, including
significant fisheries. Despite its importance, export flux is poorly
constrained in Earth System Models, with the modelled range in projected
future global-mean changes due to climate warming spanning +1.8 to
-41%. Fundamental constraints to understanding export flux arise
because a myriad of interconnected processes make the biological carbon
pump challenging to both observe and model. Our synthesis prioritises
the processes likely to be most important to include in modern-day
estimates and future projections of export, as well as identifying the
observations and model developments required to achieve more robust
characterisation of this important planetary carbon flux. We identify
particle fragmentation and zooplankton vertical migration as the
mechanisms most likely to substantially influence the magnitude of
present-day modelled export flux. Of the processes sufficiently
understood to allow implementation in climate models, projections of
future export flux and feedbacks to climate are likely to be most
sensitive to changes in phytoplankton and particle size spectra, and to
temperature-dependent remineralisation. “Known unknown” processes
which are not currently represented in models and will have an uncertain
impact on future projections include particle stickiness and fish
vertical migration. With the advent of new observational technologies,
such as biogeochemical-Argo floats and miniaturised camera systems, we
will be able to better parameterize models and thus decrease
uncertainties in current and future export flux.